Arms Control and Nonproliferation: A Catalog of Treaties and Agreements

Arms Control and Nonproliferation: A Catalog of Treaties and Agreements

Source: Congressional Research Service (via U.S. Department of State Foreign Press Center)

Arms control and nonproliferation efforts are two of the tools that have occasionally been used to implement U.S. national security strategy. Although some believe these tools do little to restrain the behavior of U.S. adversaries, while doing too much to restrain U.S. military forces and operations, many other analysts see them as an effective means to promote transparency, ease military planning, limit forces, and protect against uncertainty and surprise. Arms control and nonproliferation efforts have produced formal treaties and agreements, informal arrangements, and cooperative threat reduction and monitoring mechanisms. The pace of implementation slowed, however, in the 1990s, and the Bush Administration usually preferred unilateral or ad hoc measures to formal treaties and agreements to address U.S. security concerns. But the Obama Administration has resumed bilateral negotiations with Russia and pledged its support for a number of multilateral arms control and nonproliferation efforts.

The United States and Soviet Union began to sign agreements limiting their strategic offensive nuclear weapons in the early 1970s. Progress in negotiating and implementing these agreements was often slow, and subject to the tenor of the broader U.S.-Soviet relationship. As the Cold War drew to a close in the late 1980s, the pace of negotiations quickened, with the two sides signing treaties limiting intermediate range and long-range weapons. But progress again slowed in the 1990s, as U.S. missile defense plans and a range of other policy conflicts intervened in the U.S.- Russian relationship. At the same time, however, the two sides began to cooperate on securing and eliminating Soviet-era nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons. Through these cooperative efforts, the United States now allocates more than $1 billion each year to threat reduction programs in the former Soviet Union.

The United States is also a prominent actor in an international regime that attempts to limit the spread of nuclear weapons. This regime, although suffering from some setbacks in recent years in Iran and North Korea, includes formal treaties, export control coordination and enforcement, U.N. resolutions, and organizational controls. The Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) serves as the cornerstone of this regime, with all but four nations participating in it. The International Atomic Energy Agency not only monitors nuclear programs to make sure they remain peaceful, but also helps nations develop and advance those programs. Other measures, such as sanctions, interdiction efforts, and informal cooperative endeavors, also seek to slow or stop the spread of nuclear materials and weapons.

The international community has also adopted a number of agreements that address non-nuclear weapons. The CFE Treaty and Open Skies Treaty sought to stabilize the conventional balance in Europe in the waning years of the Cold War. Other arrangements seek to slow the spread of technologies that nations could use to develop advanced conventional weapons. The Chemical Weapons and Biological Weapons Conventions sought to eliminate both of these types of weapons completely.

This report will be updated annually, or as needed.

Resolving Insurgencies

Resolving Insurgencies

Source: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College

Understanding how insurgencies may be brought to a successful conclusion is vital to military strategists and policymakers. This study examines how past insurgencies have ended and how current ones may be resolved. Four ways in which insurgencies have ended are identified. Clear-cut victories for either the government or the insurgents occurred during the era of decolonization, but they seldom happen today. Recent insurgencies have often degenerated into criminal organizations that become committed to making money rather than fighting a revolution, or they evolve into terrorist groups capable of nothing more than sporadic violence. In a few cases, the threatened government has resolved the conflict by co-opting the insurgents. After achieving a strategic stalemate and persuading the belligerents that they have nothing to gain from continued fighting, these governments have drawn the insurgents into the legitimate political process through reform and concessions. The author concludes that such a co-option strategy offers the best hope of U.S. success in Afghanistan and in future counterinsurgency campaigns.

Loving the Cyber Bomb? The Dangers of Threat Inflation in Cybersecurity Policy

Loving the Cyber Bomb? The Dangers of Threat Inflation in Cybersecurity Policy

Source: Mercatus Center (George Mason University)


Over the past two years there has been a steady drumbeat of alarmist rhetoric coming out of Washington about potential catastrophic cyber threats. For example, at a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing last year, Chairman Carl Levin said that “cyberweapons and cyberattacks potentially can be devastating, approaching weapons of mass destruction in their effects.” Proposed responses include increased federal spending on cybersecurity and the regulation of private network security practices.

The rhetoric of “cyber doom” employed by proponents of increased federal intervention, however, lacks clear evidence of a serious threat that can be verified by the public. As a result, the United States may be witnessing a bout of threat inflation similar to that seen in the run-up to the Iraq War. Additionally, a cyber-industrial complex is emerging, much like the military-industrial complex of the Cold War. This complex may serve to not only supply cybersecurity solutions to the federal government, but to drum up demand for them as well.

Part I of this article draws a parallel between today’s cybersecurity debate and the run-up to the Iraq War and looks at how an inflated public conception of the threat we face may lead to unnecessary regulation of the Internet. Part II draws a parallel between the emerging cybersecurity establishment and the military-industrial complex of the Cold War and looks at how unwarranted external influence can lead to unnecessary federal spending. Finally, Part III surveys several federal cybersecurity proposals and presents a framework for analyzing the cybersecurity threat.

United States Peace Index 2011

United States Peace Index 2011

Source: Institute for Economics & Peace

The United States Peace Index (USPI) is the first in a series of national peace indices that will build on the work of the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) in measuring and understanding the fabric of peace. The Institute produces the Global Peace Index which is the first ever study to methodically rank the nations of the world by their peacefulness and to identify potential drivers of peace. The GPI has become a valued resource and is used by academics, think tanks and governments around the world.

Partnership for the Americas: Western Hemisphere Strategy and U.S. Southern Command

Partnership for the Americas: Western Hemisphere Strategy and U.S. Southern Command

Source: National Defense University

Admiral James G. Stavridis, USN, reflects on his tenure as Commander of United States Southern Command (SOUTHCOM). The first Admiral to command Southern Command, Admiral Stavridis broke with tradition from day one, discarding the customary military staff model and creating an innovative organization designed not solely to subdue adversaries, but, perhaps more importantly, to build durable and lasting partnerships with friends. As he has said often, “We are excellent at launching Tomahawk missiles; in this part of the world, we need to get better at launching ideas.”

From his unique perspective as commander, Stavridis uses his engagingly personal style to describe his vision for the command’s role in the Americas, making the most of limited resources to create goodwill and mutual respect, while taking care of the serious business of countering illegal drug trafficking, overcoming a dangerous insurgency in Colombia, and responding to humanitarian crises.

Russia's Prospects in Asia

Russia's Prospects in Asia

Source: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College

These three chapters originated in an SSI conference in January 2010 and go to the heart of a question of vital significance for both Asia and Russia, namely what are Russia’s prospects in Asia. The three chapters outline the challenges Russia faces in Asia, the nature of the dynamic and complex Asian security environment, and the extent to which Russia is or is not meeting those challenges.

Defense Budgets and American Power

Defense Budgets and American Power

Source: Brookings Institution

In the late 1980s, as U.S. GDP growth slowed, budget deficits remained stubbornly high, and other nations’ economies outperformed that of the United States, arguments that “the Cold War is over—and Japan and Germany won” were heard frequently. Since that time, however, these U.S. allies have encountered their own challenges—Germany in reintegrating its eastern half and then helping establish the viability (and solvency) of the European Union (EU) and Euro systems; and Japan in dealing with a protracted deflating of its earlier financial bubble, combined with demographic challenges that leave its future economic prospects uncertain, at best.

Today, we are witnessing a period of even greater American economic travails, with much larger fiscal deficits. These are coupled with deep concern that less friendly powers—China in particular and perhaps Russia and others—may be poised to benefit from the relative decline of the United States specifically and the West in general. Is this assessment accurate? What do these shifting economic realities bode for the future of American power and ultimately the security of this country and its allies? Most of all, in light of these changes, to what extent can the United States mitigate the downsides of any hegemonic realignment of global power by more responsible fiscal policy? Put most sharply for the purposes of this essay, to what extent should the United States, as part of a broader strategy to reduce its deficits and strengthen its future economic prospects, accept some defense budget cuts now to preserve and enhance its power in the future?

Global Governance 2025: At a Critical Juncture (PDF)

Global Governance 2025: At a Critical Juncture (PDF)

Source: Office of the Director of National Intelligence (National Intelligence Council)

The United States’ National Intelligence Council (NIC) and the European Union’s Institute for Security Studies (EUISS) have joined forces to produce this assessment of the long-term prospects for global governance frameworks.

Uncertainties in the North Korean Nuclear Threat

Uncertainties in the North Korean Nuclear Threat

Source: RAND Corporation

North Korea has been very successful in denying the United States and others information about its nuclear weapon program. The result is a high degree of uncertainty about the size and character of the North Korean nuclear weapon threat, how it might be used, and what impact it might have. This briefing addresses those uncertainties. Estimates of the number and nature of North Korean nuclear weapons depend heavily on how much external help the program has received; there is some evidence that help has included the provision of fissile material and assistance in the design of nuclear weapons, including miniaturization for ballistic missiles. North Korea uses its nuclear weapons actively in peacetime for deterrence and to obtain leverage. It could use them heavily in a war. If its force is as large as the uncertainties suggest it might be, North Korea could establish its nuclear weapon capabilities and intent to use them from early on in a war. Like other countries that have developed small nuclear forces, North Korea could threaten adversary cities (mainly in Japan and the Republic of Korea) to control escalation and the developments in a war, striving for some hope of victory. If North Korea actually attacked a city such as Seoul with a nuclear weapon, it could result in hundreds of thousands of casualties, as well as serious damage to the South Korean economy.

Pakistan: Can the United States Secure an Insecure State?

Pakistan: Can the United States Secure an Insecure State?

Source: RAND Corporation

Describing Pakistan’s likely future course, this book seeks to inform U.S. efforts to achieve an effective foreign policy strategy toward the country. The book forms an empirical analysis of developments in Pakistan and an assessment of the effectiveness of U.S. policy as of August 2009. Drawing on interviews of elites, polling data, and statistical data on Pakistan’s armed forces, the book presents a political and political-military analysis. Primary data and analyses from Pakistanis and international economic organizations are used in the book’s demographic and economic analyses. The book assesses Pakistan’s own policies, based on similar sources, on government documents, and on the authors’ close reading of the assessments of several outside observers. The book also discusses U.S. policy regarding Pakistan, which was based on interviews with U.S. policymakers and on U.S. policy documents. The policy recommendations are based on an assessment of the findings in all these areas. The book concludes with a number of recommendations for the U.S. government and the U.S. Air Force concerning how the United States could forge a broad yet effective relationship with this complicated state.

Increasing Energy Efficiency: A Key Step in Securing America’s Energy Future

Increasing Energy Efficiency: A Key Step in Securing America’s Energy Future

Source: U.S. Chamber of Commerce

Karen Harbert, president and CEO of the Institute for 21st Century Energy at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, today told lawmakers that while targeted tax incentives can play a role in fostering deployment of clean energy, there are other instruments that may prove to be more impactful and less expensive over time.

In testimony before the House Ways and Means Committee today about Energy Tax Incentives and the Green Job Economy, Harbert noted that in addition to fiscal tools, other weapons in the policy arsenal should be used to tackle our energy challenges.

“As we examine energy policy, it is more important than ever that we look to options that don’t further burden the taxpayer or jeopardize energy security and offer the greatest return on investment to our economy,” Harbert said. “It is important to realize that tax incentives are only one avenue to foster the deployment of clean technologies, and there are other instruments which, in some situations, may prove more impactful and less expensive over time.”

Nuke Review Takes Comprehensive Look at Strategy

Nuke Review Takes Comprehensive Look at Strategy

Source: U.S. Department of Defense

The Nuclear Posture Review, released today, is the first overarching look at U.S. nuclear strategy since the end of the Cold War, a senior defense official briefing reporters on background said yesterday.

The review builds on President Barack Obama’s promise to take concrete steps toward the goal of achieving the safety and security of a world free of nuclear weapons, the official said.
A second element, the official added, was to maintain a nuclear deterrent as long as those weapons remain, and ensuring the safety, security and effectiveness of that deterrent while they remain.

The Nuclear Posture Review provides the basis behind many moves in the nuclear arena in the coming months, the official said. Obama will travel to Prague to sign the new strategic arms reduction treaty with Russia on April 8. The treaty mandates further reductions to the U.S. and Russian arsenals, and officials looked to the Nuclear Posture Review guidance as they negotiated the treaty.

The review also will influence U.S. thinking in the nonproliferation treaty, the nuclear security summit and the nonproliferation review conference.

Ballistic Missile Defense Review

Ballistic Missile Defense Review

Source: U.S. Department of Defense

The Ballistic Missile Defense Review (BMDR) is a review conducted pursuant to guidance from the President and the Secretary of Defense, while also addressing the legislative requirement to assess U.S. ballistic missile defense policy and strategy. The BMDR will evaluate the threats posed by ballistic missiles and develop a missile defense posture to address current and future challenges.

Command and control? Planning for EU military operations

Command and control? Planning for EU military operations
Source: Institute for Security Studies

Summary:This paper assesses the effectiveness of the European Union’s capability for the planning and conduct of military operations. Given the fact that the planning and conduct phases of an operation can never be fully isolated from each other, the paper does include some references to the conduct dimension, i.e. command and control (C2). However, it is with planning issues that this paper is most directly concerned. It argues that the lack of a permanent planning and conduct capability cripples the Union’s planning and C2 performance as well as the development of the European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP) more broadly. This capability, though, need not adopt the form of a fully-fledged Operational Headquarters (OHQ). The paper explains that the nature and evolution of the Union’s planning and C2 capability is largely the result of compromises between France, Britain and Germany (the Union’s ‘Big Three’) and argues that a coincidence in British-German objectives – the ‘awkward alignment’ – is particularly responsible for the continuing absence of a permanent military planning and C2 capability.

In its policy recommendations, the paper attempts to reconcile the need to address the existing deficiencies in the realms of planning (no flexibility and lack of advance planning capacity) and C2 (the unreliability of the Union’s Communications and Information Systems infrastructure and the lack of situational awareness) with prevailing political caveats – principally, the general resistance to the creation of a fully-fledged and permanent military OHQ. It proposes strengthening the Military Assessment on Planning Branch (currently placed within the EU Military Staff) by setting up a planning skeleton (composed of some 50 officials) devoted to improving the Union’s advance planning performance and increasing flexibility in the Union’s planning process. This skeleton would be inserted within the future Crisis Management Planning Directorate (CMPD) structure. Additionally, an ad hoc group of national augmentees (drawn from a wider pool of some 80 to 100 pre-identified augmentees) could join a detachment from the skeleton and plug onto the existing OpsCentre or a national OHQ for operational planning and conduct purposes.

The paper is divided into three chapters. The first chapter explains ESDP’s planning cycle and describes the evolution of the Union’s planning and C2 capability. The second chapter proceeds to assess the planning and C2 performance of three military operations; EUFOR Althea in Bosnia and Herzegovina, EUFOR DRC in the Democratic Republic of Congo and EUFOR Tchad/RCA in Chad and the Central African Republic. The third and last chapter presents the study’s conclusions and offers practical policy recommendations aimed at improving the Union’s planning and conduct capability.

Budget of the United States Government Fiscal Year 2010

Budget of the United States Government Fiscal Year 2010
February 26th, 2009

Direct to Budget and Supporting Materials Organized by Department.

Source: Office of Management and Budget

The Speeches of Barack Obama

The Speeches of Barack Obama

Free searchable eBook of more than 200 transcripts of Barack Obama speeches spanning from 2002 to 2009 — including his election night speech and inaugural address. This eBook uniquely combines 200+ addresses in one database. Giving you the capability to keyword search, compare speeches,verify quotes, sort and search by date or location, and even create reports.

You can search online or download to use with a copy of askSam. If you don’t have a copy of askSam download the free viewer (version 7 is now available).

Iraq in the Obama Administration

Iraq in the Obama Administration
Source: United States Institute of Peace

President-elect Obama has stated his commitment to withdraw combat brigades from Iraq within 16 months, leaving a residual force of unspecified size for counterterrorism operations, training and equipping Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and protection of Americans. Judging from his statements during the campaign, it appears that the President-elect would like to leave Iraq’s internal problems to the Iraqis and treat Iraq as part of overall regional concerns rather than being his central focus. He aims to reduce America’s Iraq commitments and restore U.S. credibility, prestige and capacity to act worldwide.

Nonetheless, as the president-elect himself has pointed out, the U.S. should get out with more care than we got in. Vital U.S. interests are still at stake in Iraq and the region. U.S. withdrawal should not create a situation even more costly to American interests than the war so far has been. The Obama Administration will have an opportunity to establish with Iraq a relationship that serves U.S. interests in a country with which we will be involved for a long time to come.

Pacific Currents: The Responses of U.S. Allies and Security Partners in East Asia to China’s Rise

Pacific Currents: The Responses of U.S. Allies and Security Partners in East Asia to China’s Rise

Source: RAND Corporation

China’s economic, military, and diplomatic power has been on the rise, and many worry that it is nudging aside U.S. influence in the Asia-Pacific region. To explore this issue, the authors examined six specific U.S. allies and partners — Australia, Japan, the Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, and Thailand. From extensive in-country interviews, trade and poll data, etc., they examined the responses in each nation to China’s rise and assessed the implications for U.S. regional security interests. The six nations see China primarily as a source of economic opportunity, but many have concerns about China’s regional goals. They want China to be engaged regionally in productive ways but do not want to allow it to become dominant. They find U.S. security commitments reassuring, bolstering their ability to engage China with confidence. The six nations clearly want U.S. involvement in the region to continue — but sometimes only in certain ways, at certain times, and on particular issues. Thus, they are pulling China closer for the economic opportunities it offers and the United States closer for the general reassurance its long-standing power and influence provide.

Presidential Transition Website: Change.gov

Change.gov

Throughout the Presidential Transition Project, this website will be your source for the latest news, events, and announcements so that you can follow the setting up of the Obama Administration. And just as this historic campaign was, from the beginning, about you — the transition process will offer you opportunities to participate in redefining our government.

Defense Imperatives for the New Administration

Defense Imperatives for the New Administration

Source: Defense Science Board

The incoming leadership must be prepared to deal with the most pressing issues facing the Department of Defense today. The pressing issues described herein are daunting and may seem all-inclusive, but they are only a fraction of the defense challenges facing the new administration. This report describes just those issues that the next Secretary of Defense should place at the top of the agenda — issues that will require the attention of the Commander-in-Chief, and, if left unresolved, could lead to future military failure.

This report offers recommendations drawn from reports prepared by the Defense Science Board, an advisory body to the Secretary of Defense, which address topics at the confluence of technology, policy, and management.