New Report: UK Foreign Policy Goals Cannot Be Achieved by Military Power Alone

New Report: UK Foreign Policy Goals Cannot Be Achieved by Military Power Alone

Source: Chatham House

Strategic communications should become a more prominent component at the highest levels of government, at an early stage in the development of government strategies, during a crisis response or a contingency operation and generally as a critical component of policy-making, says a new Chatham House report.

Recent operations in Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya have underlined that UK foreign policy goals cannot be achieved by military power alone. Increasingly important are non-military means and ‘soft’ power in order to connect with populations both at home and abroad. Strategic communications, correctly defined, are an integral part of this approach.

Strategic Communications and National Strategy, aims to raise awareness of the role of strategic communications and clarify how it can contribute to facing future security challenges.

The report considers the contribution strategic communications can make to national security strategy in its broader sense as directed, managed and delivered not only by the highest levels of government but by all constituent pillars of governance, including the military, diplomacy and trade, throughout the policy process.

Although the UK government clearly has a good understanding of the importance of strategic communications, this understanding is relatively limited in its sophistication and imagination, and policy in turn proves difficult to coordinate and implement.

Arms Control and Nonproliferation: A Catalog of Treaties and Agreements

Arms Control and Nonproliferation: A Catalog of Treaties and Agreements

Source: Congressional Research Service (via U.S. Department of State Foreign Press Center)

Arms control and nonproliferation efforts are two of the tools that have occasionally been used to implement U.S. national security strategy. Although some believe these tools do little to restrain the behavior of U.S. adversaries, while doing too much to restrain U.S. military forces and operations, many other analysts see them as an effective means to promote transparency, ease military planning, limit forces, and protect against uncertainty and surprise. Arms control and nonproliferation efforts have produced formal treaties and agreements, informal arrangements, and cooperative threat reduction and monitoring mechanisms. The pace of implementation slowed, however, in the 1990s, and the Bush Administration usually preferred unilateral or ad hoc measures to formal treaties and agreements to address U.S. security concerns. But the Obama Administration has resumed bilateral negotiations with Russia and pledged its support for a number of multilateral arms control and nonproliferation efforts.

The United States and Soviet Union began to sign agreements limiting their strategic offensive nuclear weapons in the early 1970s. Progress in negotiating and implementing these agreements was often slow, and subject to the tenor of the broader U.S.-Soviet relationship. As the Cold War drew to a close in the late 1980s, the pace of negotiations quickened, with the two sides signing treaties limiting intermediate range and long-range weapons. But progress again slowed in the 1990s, as U.S. missile defense plans and a range of other policy conflicts intervened in the U.S.- Russian relationship. At the same time, however, the two sides began to cooperate on securing and eliminating Soviet-era nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons. Through these cooperative efforts, the United States now allocates more than $1 billion each year to threat reduction programs in the former Soviet Union.

The United States is also a prominent actor in an international regime that attempts to limit the spread of nuclear weapons. This regime, although suffering from some setbacks in recent years in Iran and North Korea, includes formal treaties, export control coordination and enforcement, U.N. resolutions, and organizational controls. The Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) serves as the cornerstone of this regime, with all but four nations participating in it. The International Atomic Energy Agency not only monitors nuclear programs to make sure they remain peaceful, but also helps nations develop and advance those programs. Other measures, such as sanctions, interdiction efforts, and informal cooperative endeavors, also seek to slow or stop the spread of nuclear materials and weapons.

The international community has also adopted a number of agreements that address non-nuclear weapons. The CFE Treaty and Open Skies Treaty sought to stabilize the conventional balance in Europe in the waning years of the Cold War. Other arrangements seek to slow the spread of technologies that nations could use to develop advanced conventional weapons. The Chemical Weapons and Biological Weapons Conventions sought to eliminate both of these types of weapons completely.

This report will be updated annually, or as needed.

India’s Contemporary Security Challenges (PDF)

Source: Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars

India is the world’s largest democracy, and one of its fastest-growing economies. The country is celebrated for its educated professional class, its urban-based prosperity, and its Bollywood-fueled cultural influence abroad. Commentators wax effusive about its extraordinary “growth story” and rising global clout. A 2010 joint study by the U.S. National Intelligence Council and the European Union declared it the world’s third-most powerful nation.

India, to borrow a government slogan first coined in 2003, is indeed “shining.” This cheery narrative, however, masks a parallel reality about India. While parts of the country bask in the glow of new-found affluence, others continue to toil in the gloom of abject poverty. This other side of India is also riven by violence and unrest, which increasingly targets the government. Meanwhile, even as India takes on the trappings of a global power, it remains deeply concerned about security developments beyond its borders. Lurking beneath India’s recent triumphs are internal and external security challenges that may well intensify in the years ahead.

China-Latin America Military Engagement: Good Will, Good Business, and Strategic Position

China-Latin America Military Engagement: Good Will, Good Business, and Strategic Position

Source: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College

This monograph examines Chinese military engagement with Latin America in five areas: (1) meetings between senior military officials; (2) lower-level military-to-military interactions; (3) military sales; (4) military-relevant commercial interactions; and, (5) Chinese physical presence within Latin America, all of which have military-strategic implications. This monograph finds that the level of PRC military engagement with the region is higher than is generally recognized, and has expanded in important ways in recent years: High-level trips by Latin American defense and security personnel to the PRC and visits by their Chinese counterparts to Latin America have become commonplace. The volume and sophistication of Chinese arms sold to the region has increased. Officer exchange programs, institutional visits, and other lower-level ties have also expanded. Chinese military personnel have begun participating in operations in the region in a modest, yet symbolically important manner. The monograph also argues that in the short term, PRC military engagement with Latin America does not focus on establishing alliances or base access to the United States, but rather, supporting objectives of national development and regime survival, such as building understanding and political leverage among important commercial partners, creating the tools to protect PRC interests in the countries where it does business, and selling Chinese products and moving up the value-added chain in strategically important sectors. It concludes that Chinese military engagement may both contribute to legitimate regional security needs, and foster misunderstanding. It argues that the U.S. should work for greater transparency with the PRC in regard to those activities, as well as to analyze how the Chinese presence will impact the calculation of the region’s actors in the context of specific future scenarios.

India’s Developing International Role

India’s Developing International Role

Source: Chatham House

Within a short time, India has evolved from a country with a marginal role to a key participant in global decision-making. But many agree that India’s ability to play a greater global role would evolve more naturally were the country’s domestic development challenges met.

In recent years Western countries have encouraged India to play a more active global role, as have other emerging powers. India has attempted to do so in many areas, and it has sought to be recognized as a global actor, not least by campaigning for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council.

A new Chatham House report, For the Global Good: India’s Developing International Role, explores India’s growing influence on international affairs, trade and investments, security and democracy, and the environment, including climate change.

Given its size and population, India has potential to make a significant contribution in tackling climate change through its domestic policies on renewable energy, adopting low-carbon technology and forest conservation.

The report also assesses its role in Afghanistan, by far the most important example of Indian overseas assistance today. India, the fifth larges provider of aid to Afghanistan, sees a stable, pro-Indian government in Afghanistan as a strategic benefit and the country remains a ‘special case’ in India’s foreign policy thinking.

Partnership for the Americas: Western Hemisphere Strategy and U.S. Southern Command

Partnership for the Americas: Western Hemisphere Strategy and U.S. Southern Command

Source: National Defense University

Admiral James G. Stavridis, USN, reflects on his tenure as Commander of United States Southern Command (SOUTHCOM). The first Admiral to command Southern Command, Admiral Stavridis broke with tradition from day one, discarding the customary military staff model and creating an innovative organization designed not solely to subdue adversaries, but, perhaps more importantly, to build durable and lasting partnerships with friends. As he has said often, “We are excellent at launching Tomahawk missiles; in this part of the world, we need to get better at launching ideas.”

From his unique perspective as commander, Stavridis uses his engagingly personal style to describe his vision for the command’s role in the Americas, making the most of limited resources to create goodwill and mutual respect, while taking care of the serious business of countering illegal drug trafficking, overcoming a dangerous insurgency in Colombia, and responding to humanitarian crises.

The National Military Strategy of the United States 2011

The National Military Strategy of the United States 2011 (PDF)

Source: U.S. Department of Defense (Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff)

From press release (Admiral Mike Mullen):

"Today, I released the 2011 National Military Strategy which provides a vision for how our Joint Force will provide the military capability to protect the American People, defend our Nation and allies, and contribute to our broader peace, security and prosperity.

While we continue to refine how we counter violent extremism and deter aggression, this strategy also rightfully emphasizes that our military power is most effective when employed in concert with other elements of power. This whole-of-nation approach to foreign policy, with civilian leadership appropriately at the helm, will be essential as we address the complex security challenges before us.

This strategy also acknowledges that while tough near-term choices must be made during this era of broader economic constraints, we will continue to invest in our people and our families. Working with our government and interagency partners, and our friends and allies, they, most of all, will bring this strategy to life as we meet our 21st century responsibilities in a dynamic, yet uncertain, future."

Russia's Prospects in Asia

Russia's Prospects in Asia

Source: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College

These three chapters originated in an SSI conference in January 2010 and go to the heart of a question of vital significance for both Asia and Russia, namely what are Russia’s prospects in Asia. The three chapters outline the challenges Russia faces in Asia, the nature of the dynamic and complex Asian security environment, and the extent to which Russia is or is not meeting those challenges.

Defense Budgets and American Power

Defense Budgets and American Power

Source: Brookings Institution

In the late 1980s, as U.S. GDP growth slowed, budget deficits remained stubbornly high, and other nations’ economies outperformed that of the United States, arguments that “the Cold War is over—and Japan and Germany won” were heard frequently. Since that time, however, these U.S. allies have encountered their own challenges—Germany in reintegrating its eastern half and then helping establish the viability (and solvency) of the European Union (EU) and Euro systems; and Japan in dealing with a protracted deflating of its earlier financial bubble, combined with demographic challenges that leave its future economic prospects uncertain, at best.

Today, we are witnessing a period of even greater American economic travails, with much larger fiscal deficits. These are coupled with deep concern that less friendly powers—China in particular and perhaps Russia and others—may be poised to benefit from the relative decline of the United States specifically and the West in general. Is this assessment accurate? What do these shifting economic realities bode for the future of American power and ultimately the security of this country and its allies? Most of all, in light of these changes, to what extent can the United States mitigate the downsides of any hegemonic realignment of global power by more responsible fiscal policy? Put most sharply for the purposes of this essay, to what extent should the United States, as part of a broader strategy to reduce its deficits and strengthen its future economic prospects, accept some defense budget cuts now to preserve and enhance its power in the future?

Global Governance 2025: At a Critical Juncture (PDF)

Global Governance 2025: At a Critical Juncture (PDF)

Source: Office of the Director of National Intelligence (National Intelligence Council)

The United States’ National Intelligence Council (NIC) and the European Union’s Institute for Security Studies (EUISS) have joined forces to produce this assessment of the long-term prospects for global governance frameworks.

New USIP Primer Sheds Light on Iran

New USIP Primer Sheds Light on Iran

Source: U.S. Institute of Peace

On October 18 the United States Institute of Peace Press will release “The Iran Primer: Power, Politics, and U.S. Policy,” an online resource that provides a comprehensive but concise overview of Iran’s politics, economy, military, foreign policy and nuclear program. A print version will be available December 1.

Edited by Robin Wright, this compendium provides top-level briefings by 50 seasoned experts on Iran (both Iranian and Western authors) from some twenty foreign policy think tanks, eight universities, and six U.S. administrations. The authors present a wide range of views, offering factual information for ready reference, thoughtful analysis and context. Since Iran’s 1979 revolution, the West has struggled to understand what drives the Islamic Republic and how to deal with it. The challenge now looms even larger in the face of Iran’s controversial nuclear program, the disputed 2009 election, growing human rights violations and angry rhetoric.

Annual Report to Congress — Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China – 2010

Annual Report to Congress — Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China – 2010 (PDF)

Source: U.S. Department of Defense

Over the past 30 years, China has made great progress in its pursuit of economic growth and development, which has allowed China to achieve higher living standards for the Chinese people and has increased China’s international profile. These economic achievements, combined with progress in science and technology, have also enabled China to embark on a comprehensive transformation of its military. The pace and scope of China’s military modernization have increased over the past decade, enabling China’s armed forces to develop capabilities to contribute to the delivery of international public goods, as well as increase China’s options for using military force to gain diplomatic advantage or resolve disputes in its favor.

Rising Powers and Domestic Attitudes on Hard Power

Rising Powers and Domestic Attitudes on Hard Power (PDF)

Source: Sigur Center for Asian Studies, Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University

Examining domestic foreign policy debates within rising powers provides insights into how these countries will behave as they rise. Five important rising powers in the critical Asian and Eurasian regions today are China, Japan, India, Iran and Russia. An international research team under the direction of the Sigur Center for Asian Studies at the Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University, is in the process of analyzing the foreign policy debates and schools of thought within these countries. This research is part of the Sigur Center’s project on “Worldviews of Aspiring Powers” sponsored by the Carnegie Corporation, and led by Sigur faculty members Henry R. Nau and Deepa Ollapally.

This Policy Brief draws from the presentations of the research team at a project conference held in Beijing, China in May 2010. It examines the attitude of the five rising powers toward hard power, specifically economic power and military power.

United States Institute of Peace Releases Review of Quadrennial Defense Report

United States Institute of Peace Releases Review of Quadrennial Defense Report

Source: United States Institute of Peace

On Thursday, July 29, the co-chairs of a select, bipartisan panel testified that their study of the Defense Department’s 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) found that without needed reform the All-Volunteer Force may be unsustainable and that the nation needs a new national security strategic planning process that better incorporates civilian departments and agencies. Former National Security Adviser Stephen J. Hadley and former Secretary of Defense William J. Perry met with the House Armed Services Committee about their now-public report, “The QDR in Perspective: Meeting America’s National Security Needs in the 21st Century.”

In their testimony, they summed up the panel’s warning that:

» “The aging of the inventories and equipment used by the services, the decline in the size of the Navy, escalating personnel entitlements, increased overhead and procurement costs, and the growing stress on the force means that a train wreck is coming in the areas of personnel, acquisition, and force structure.”
» “In addition, our nation needs to build greater civil operational capacity to deploy civilians alongside our military and to partner with international bodies, the private sector, and nongovernmental organizations in dealing with failed and failing states.”

Pakistan: Can the United States Secure an Insecure State?

Pakistan: Can the United States Secure an Insecure State?

Source: RAND Corporation

Describing Pakistan’s likely future course, this book seeks to inform U.S. efforts to achieve an effective foreign policy strategy toward the country. The book forms an empirical analysis of developments in Pakistan and an assessment of the effectiveness of U.S. policy as of August 2009. Drawing on interviews of elites, polling data, and statistical data on Pakistan’s armed forces, the book presents a political and political-military analysis. Primary data and analyses from Pakistanis and international economic organizations are used in the book’s demographic and economic analyses. The book assesses Pakistan’s own policies, based on similar sources, on government documents, and on the authors’ close reading of the assessments of several outside observers. The book also discusses U.S. policy regarding Pakistan, which was based on interviews with U.S. policymakers and on U.S. policy documents. The policy recommendations are based on an assessment of the findings in all these areas. The book concludes with a number of recommendations for the U.S. government and the U.S. Air Force concerning how the United States could forge a broad yet effective relationship with this complicated state.

Nuke Review Takes Comprehensive Look at Strategy

Nuke Review Takes Comprehensive Look at Strategy

Source: U.S. Department of Defense

The Nuclear Posture Review, released today, is the first overarching look at U.S. nuclear strategy since the end of the Cold War, a senior defense official briefing reporters on background said yesterday.

The review builds on President Barack Obama’s promise to take concrete steps toward the goal of achieving the safety and security of a world free of nuclear weapons, the official said.
A second element, the official added, was to maintain a nuclear deterrent as long as those weapons remain, and ensuring the safety, security and effectiveness of that deterrent while they remain.

The Nuclear Posture Review provides the basis behind many moves in the nuclear arena in the coming months, the official said. Obama will travel to Prague to sign the new strategic arms reduction treaty with Russia on April 8. The treaty mandates further reductions to the U.S. and Russian arsenals, and officials looked to the Nuclear Posture Review guidance as they negotiated the treaty.

The review also will influence U.S. thinking in the nonproliferation treaty, the nuclear security summit and the nonproliferation review conference.

Four free databases from SIPRI

1) Facts on International Relations and Security Trends

The FIRST system offers researchers, politicians and the media an authoritative and structured factual reference system on international relations and security trends. It contains high-quality, up-to-date and clearly documented information in areas such as:
+ conflicts, arms transfers and military expenditure
+ hard facts on states and international organizations
+ economic and social statistics
+ chronologies
The system allows the user to search through more than 40 databases from different institutes around the world through a single user-friendly interface.

2) SIPRI Military Expenditure Database

The SIPRI Military Expenditure Database provides military expenditure data by country in the following three formats:
+ in local currency, at current prices. 1988-2007
+ in US dollars, at constant (2005) prices and exchange rates, 1988-2007
+ as a share (%) of gross domestic product (GDP), 1988-2006
SIPRI military expenditure data is based on open sources only, including a SIPRI questionnaire which is sent out annually to all countries included in the database. The collected data is processed to achieve consistent time series which are, as far as possible, in accordance with the SIPRI definition of military expenditure, detailed in the sources and methods.

3) SIPRI Arms Transfers Database

The SIPRI Arms Transfers Database is a fully searchable online database containing information on all international transfers of seven categories of major conventional weapons from 1950 to the most recent full calendar year. It can be used to generate detailed written reports and statistical data. To access the database select which output format you wish to generate and follow the instructions provided.

4) SIPRI Multilateral Peace Operations Database
The SIPRI Multilateral Peace Operations Database is a uniquely source of transparent and reliable data on all multilateral peace operations (both UN and non-UN) conducted around the world.
It contains information on where an operation is located, the dates of its deployment and operation, the mission mandate, the participating countries, the approved and actual number of personnel deployed, broken down into personnel types, the financial costs and the number of fatalities suffered.

Source: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute

The 2009 Arab Public Opinion Poll: A View from the Middle East

The 2009 Arab Public Opinion Poll: A View from the Middle East

Source: Brookings Institution

On May 19, the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings hosted the release of a new 2009 University of Maryland/Zogby International public opinion poll which reveals long-term trends and surprising revelations about perceptions of the United States and President Barack Obama in the Middle East. Shibley Telhami, Saban Center nonresident senior fellow and principal investigator of the poll, and the Anwar Sadat professor for Peace and Development at the University of Maryland, presented his latest polling research and key findings. He was joined for a discussion of the poll results by James Zogby, founder and president of the Arab American Institute and Marc Lynch, associate professor at the Elliott School of International Affairs at The George Washington University.

Piracy off the Horn of Africa - CRS Report

Piracy off the Horn of Africa

Source: Congressional Research Service (via Federation of American Scientists)

Recent attacks, including those on U.S.-flagged vessels, in the waters off the Horn of Africa have brought new U.S. and international attention to the long-standing problem of piracy in the region. The International Maritime Bureau recorded 111 attacks in the waters off the Horn of Africa in 2008, almost double the number in 2007. As of April 20, 2009, The International Maritime Bureau had counted 84 attacks since January: approximately 300 non-U.S. crew members on 18 hijacked vessels remain in Somali captivity. Previously concentrated in the Gulf of Aden between Yemen and the northern coast of Somalia and along the country’s eastern coastline, attacks on merchant ships are now taking place over an area of more than 1 million sq. miles in the Gulf and the west Indian Ocean, posing a significant threat to commercial shipping. Pirate attacks also have threatened relief shipments bound for East Africa and the countries of the Horn, amid a humanitarian crisis in the region that experts are calling the worst since 1984. The increase in pirate attacks off the Horn of Africa is directly linked to continuing insecurity and the absence of the rule of law in war-torn Somalia. The absence of a functioning government in Somalia remains the single greatest challenge to regional security and provides freedom of action for those engaged in piracy along the Somali coast. Some observers also have alleged that the absence of coastal security authorities in Somalia has allowed illegal international fishing and maritime dumping to occur in Somali waters, which in turn has undermined the economic prospects of some Somalis and may be providing economic or political motivation to some groups engaged in piracy. The apparent motive of many active Somali pirate groups is profit, and piracy has proven to be a lucrative activity for many thus far. Ransoms paid to Somali pirates and their supporters, estimated at over $30 million in 2008, may exacerbate ongoing fighting and further undermine security in the region.

From Within and Without: Sustainable Security in the Middle East and North Africa

From Within and Without: Sustainable Security in the Middle East and North Africa

Source: Oxford Research Group

As in much of the world, the current security discourse in the Middle East and North Africa is dominated by what might be called the ‘control paradigm’: an approach based on the premise that insecurity can be controlled through military force or balance of power politics and containment, thus maintaining the status quo. The most obvious global example of this approach has been the so-called ‘war on terror’, which essentially aims to ‘keep the lid’ on terrorism and insecurity, without addressing the root causes (an approach that has negatively impacted on the region). Such approaches to national, regional and international security are deeply flawed - particularly if not complemented by diplomatic efforts - and are distracting the world’s politicians from developing realistic and sustainable solutions to the non- traditional threats facing the world.

In contrast, this report explores an alternative approach, that of ’sustainable security’. The central premise of sustainable security is that you cannot successfully control all the consequences of insecurity, but must work to resolve the causes. In other words, ‘fighting the symptoms’ will not work, you must instead ‘cure the disease’. Such a framework must be based on an integrated analysis of security threats and a preventative approach to responses.