Iraq - U.S. Policy Documents
Source: Military Education Research Library Network (MERLN)
A central repository of publicly available U.S. policy documents. Includes documents from the White House, Department of Defense, Department of State, Department of Homeland Security, Central Intelligence Agency, Other Policy Sources. Searchable.
Monday, July 23, 2007
Thursday, July 19, 2007
Military: 2007 Key Strategic Issues List (KSIL)
U.S. Military: 2007 Key Strategic Issues List (KSIL)
Edited by Dr. Antulio J. Echevarria, II.
Source: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
The Key Strategic Issues List gives researchers, whether military professionals or civilian scholars, a ready reference of those issues of particular interest to the Department of the Army and the Department of Defense. Its focus is strategic, rather than operational or tactical. Every year, the KSIL helps guide research efforts to the mutual benefit of the defense community and individual researchers.
Edited by Dr. Antulio J. Echevarria, II.
Source: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
The Key Strategic Issues List gives researchers, whether military professionals or civilian scholars, a ready reference of those issues of particular interest to the Department of the Army and the Department of Defense. Its focus is strategic, rather than operational or tactical. Every year, the KSIL helps guide research efforts to the mutual benefit of the defense community and individual researchers.
Tuesday, July 17, 2007
U.S.-China Relations After Resolution of Taiwan’s Status
U.S.-China Relations After Resolution of Taiwan’s Status
Source: RAND Corporation
Although the question of Taiwan’s status is unlikely to be resolved soon, considering the various possible outcomes and how they might affect U.S.–China relations is useful. A total of ten distinct trajectories for the resolution of the cross-strait relationship can be identified, with greatly varying implications for U.S.-China relations. Unsurprisingly, the impact of peaceful outcomes, including continued peaceful irresolution, is both more predictable and generally better for relations between Washington and Beijing. If China uses force against Taiwan, however, subsequent U.S.–China relations could fall anywhere from close cooperation to hostile cold war. Both how the Taiwan issue is resolved and the nature of subsequent U.S.–China relations will largely be determined by the nature of China’s government: a democratic, or, at least, highly pragmatic Chinese government is more likely to achieve a peaceful resolution; a government still controlled by the Chinese Communist Party is less likely to do so. As China’s military capabilities grow, it will become increasingly difficult but also increasingly more important to prevent Beijing from using force to bring about unification.
Source: RAND Corporation
Although the question of Taiwan’s status is unlikely to be resolved soon, considering the various possible outcomes and how they might affect U.S.–China relations is useful. A total of ten distinct trajectories for the resolution of the cross-strait relationship can be identified, with greatly varying implications for U.S.-China relations. Unsurprisingly, the impact of peaceful outcomes, including continued peaceful irresolution, is both more predictable and generally better for relations between Washington and Beijing. If China uses force against Taiwan, however, subsequent U.S.–China relations could fall anywhere from close cooperation to hostile cold war. Both how the Taiwan issue is resolved and the nature of subsequent U.S.–China relations will largely be determined by the nature of China’s government: a democratic, or, at least, highly pragmatic Chinese government is more likely to achieve a peaceful resolution; a government still controlled by the Chinese Communist Party is less likely to do so. As China’s military capabilities grow, it will become increasingly difficult but also increasingly more important to prevent Beijing from using force to bring about unification.
National Intelligence Estimate: The Terrorist Threat to the US Homeland
National Intelligence Estimate: The Terrorist Threat to the US Homeland
Source: Office of the Director of National Intelligence
We judge the US Homeland will face a persistent and evolving terrorist threat over the next three years. The main threat comes from Islamic terrorist groups and cells, especially al- Qa’ida, driven by their undiminished intent to attack the Homeland and a continued effort by these terrorist groups to adapt and improve their capabilities.
We assess that greatly increased worldwide counterterrorism efforts over the past five years have constrained the ability of al-Qa’ida to attack the US Homeland again and have led terrorist groups to perceive the Homeland as a harder target to strike than on 9/11. These measures have helped disrupt known plots against the United States since 9/11.
* We are concerned, however, that this level of international cooperation may wane as 9/11 becomes a more distant memory and perceptions of the threat diverge.
Al-Qa’ida is and will remain the most serious terrorist threat to the Homeland, as its central leadership continues to plan high-impact plots, while pushing others in extremist Sunni communities to mimic its efforts and to supplement its capabilities. We assess the group has protected or regenerated key elements of its Homeland attack capability, including: a safehaven in the Pakistan Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), operational lieutenants, and its top leadership. Although we have discovered only a handful of individuals in the United States with ties to al-Qa’ida senior leadership since 9/11, we judge that al-Qa’ida will intensify its efforts to put operatives here.
* As a result, we judge that the United States currently is in a heightened threat environment.
Source: Office of the Director of National Intelligence
We judge the US Homeland will face a persistent and evolving terrorist threat over the next three years. The main threat comes from Islamic terrorist groups and cells, especially al- Qa’ida, driven by their undiminished intent to attack the Homeland and a continued effort by these terrorist groups to adapt and improve their capabilities.
We assess that greatly increased worldwide counterterrorism efforts over the past five years have constrained the ability of al-Qa’ida to attack the US Homeland again and have led terrorist groups to perceive the Homeland as a harder target to strike than on 9/11. These measures have helped disrupt known plots against the United States since 9/11.
* We are concerned, however, that this level of international cooperation may wane as 9/11 becomes a more distant memory and perceptions of the threat diverge.
Al-Qa’ida is and will remain the most serious terrorist threat to the Homeland, as its central leadership continues to plan high-impact plots, while pushing others in extremist Sunni communities to mimic its efforts and to supplement its capabilities. We assess the group has protected or regenerated key elements of its Homeland attack capability, including: a safehaven in the Pakistan Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), operational lieutenants, and its top leadership. Although we have discovered only a handful of individuals in the United States with ties to al-Qa’ida senior leadership since 9/11, we judge that al-Qa’ida will intensify its efforts to put operatives here.
* As a result, we judge that the United States currently is in a heightened threat environment.
Friday, July 13, 2007
The End of Democratic Solidarity in the Americas?
The End of Democratic Solidarity in the Americas?
Source: Latin American Outlook, American Enterprise Institute
Not long ago, the governments of the Americas recognized the value of working together to consolidate the historic, promising trend toward democracy. Now, with democracy being dismantled in several nations and being assailed by authoritarian Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez Frías, Latin American countries seem to have abandoned the fraternal ideal of inter-American solidarity. The United States and the Organization of American States (OAS) can both do more to salvage the regional commitment to democracy, but unless Latin American and Caribbean governments are willing to stand together to defend their principles, the end of democratic solidarity is in sight.
Source: Latin American Outlook, American Enterprise Institute
Not long ago, the governments of the Americas recognized the value of working together to consolidate the historic, promising trend toward democracy. Now, with democracy being dismantled in several nations and being assailed by authoritarian Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez Frías, Latin American countries seem to have abandoned the fraternal ideal of inter-American solidarity. The United States and the Organization of American States (OAS) can both do more to salvage the regional commitment to democracy, but unless Latin American and Caribbean governments are willing to stand together to defend their principles, the end of democratic solidarity is in sight.
Thursday, July 12, 2007
Released Today — Iraq: Initial Benchmark Assessment Report
Initial Benchmark Assessment Report
Source: The White House
This report to Congress is submitted consistent with Section 1314 of the U.S. Troop Readiness, Veterans’ Care, Katrina Recovery, and Iraq Accountability Appropriations Act, 2007 (Public Law 110-28) (the “Act”). It includes an assessment of how the sovereign Government of Iraq is performing in its efforts to achieve a series of specific benchmarks contained in the Act, as well as any adjustments to strategy that may be warranted in light of that performance. This is the first of two reports to be submitted consistent with the Act and has been prepared in consultation with the Secretaries of State and Defense; Commander, Multi-National Forces-Iraq; the United States Ambassador to Iraq; and the Commander of United States Central Command, consistent with Section 1314(b)(2)(B) of the Act. This assessment complements other reports and information about Iraq provided to the Congress and is not intended as a single source of all information about the combined efforts or the future strategy of the United States, its Coalition Partners, or Iraq.
Source: The White House
This report to Congress is submitted consistent with Section 1314 of the U.S. Troop Readiness, Veterans’ Care, Katrina Recovery, and Iraq Accountability Appropriations Act, 2007 (Public Law 110-28) (the “Act”). It includes an assessment of how the sovereign Government of Iraq is performing in its efforts to achieve a series of specific benchmarks contained in the Act, as well as any adjustments to strategy that may be warranted in light of that performance. This is the first of two reports to be submitted consistent with the Act and has been prepared in consultation with the Secretaries of State and Defense; Commander, Multi-National Forces-Iraq; the United States Ambassador to Iraq; and the Commander of United States Central Command, consistent with Section 1314(b)(2)(B) of the Act. This assessment complements other reports and information about Iraq provided to the Congress and is not intended as a single source of all information about the combined efforts or the future strategy of the United States, its Coalition Partners, or Iraq.
Wednesday, July 11, 2007
Iraq Four Years after the U.S.-Led Invasion: Assessing the Crisis and Searching for a Way Forward
Iraq Four Years after the U.S.-Led Invasion: Assessing the Crisis and Searching for a Way Forward
Source: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
As the U.S. “surge” in Iraq enters its sixth month, a new Carnegie Policy Outlook reflects on the full history of the Iraq war and examines the viability of the current strategy.
The invasion and occupation of Iraq constituted the greatest nation-building challenge the United States has faced since World War II. As has become painfully clear, however, the realities of Iraq proved far more challenging than military planners had expected. Wars and sanctions only served to exacerbate stresses and tensions inherent under Saddam Hussein—there were no social forces to act as agents of change and no regional environment supportive of such change. The announcement of the surge in January 2007 revealed a sober recognition of how far U.S. strategy was removed from hard realities.
While this new U.S. strategy may have seemed plausible, it suffers from the same flawed assumptions and challenges that have plagued the entire war. The resolution of the Iraqi crisis can only come about through the construction of an inclusive, pluralistic, and federal polity with broad participation and strong political and security institutions. The Iraqi government must wean itself from U.S. military support, reinforce its own institutional and law-enforcement capacities, and take seriously the need for inclusive representational and decision-making institutions.
Source: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
As the U.S. “surge” in Iraq enters its sixth month, a new Carnegie Policy Outlook reflects on the full history of the Iraq war and examines the viability of the current strategy.
The invasion and occupation of Iraq constituted the greatest nation-building challenge the United States has faced since World War II. As has become painfully clear, however, the realities of Iraq proved far more challenging than military planners had expected. Wars and sanctions only served to exacerbate stresses and tensions inherent under Saddam Hussein—there were no social forces to act as agents of change and no regional environment supportive of such change. The announcement of the surge in January 2007 revealed a sober recognition of how far U.S. strategy was removed from hard realities.
While this new U.S. strategy may have seemed plausible, it suffers from the same flawed assumptions and challenges that have plagued the entire war. The resolution of the Iraqi crisis can only come about through the construction of an inclusive, pluralistic, and federal polity with broad participation and strong political and security institutions. The Iraqi government must wean itself from U.S. military support, reinforce its own institutional and law-enforcement capacities, and take seriously the need for inclusive representational and decision-making institutions.
Tuesday, July 10, 2007
Opportunity ‘08: Homeland Security
Opportunity ‘08: Homeland Security
Source: The Brookings Institution
“Homeland security”—both the term and the policy—were effectively born amid the crisis of September 11, 2001. The policy started with a simple purpose: to prevent further terrorist attacks on American soil. It once made sense to take measures that responded to the circumstances of that attack and reassured a nervous public. But more than five years into the apparently endless war on terrorism, homeland security should evolve from a set of emergency policies into a permanent field of important government policy that, like any other, must justify its allocation of taxpayer funds through solid analysis.
Source: The Brookings Institution
“Homeland security”—both the term and the policy—were effectively born amid the crisis of September 11, 2001. The policy started with a simple purpose: to prevent further terrorist attacks on American soil. It once made sense to take measures that responded to the circumstances of that attack and reassured a nervous public. But more than five years into the apparently endless war on terrorism, homeland security should evolve from a set of emergency policies into a permanent field of important government policy that, like any other, must justify its allocation of taxpayer funds through solid analysis.
America and the Use of Force: Sources of Legitimacy
America and the Use of Force: Sources of Legitimacy
Source: The Brookings Institution
Many American and foreign observers believe that the painful and so far unsuccessful intervention in Iraq will make the United States more reluctant to go to war in the future. Three powerful factors, however, suggest that, to the contrary, the United States may resort to military action more, not less, often in the future. The character of US foreign policy, manifested over two centuries, is that of a nation willing to use force with relative frequency on behalf of both principles and tangible interests and generally believing in the justness and appropriateness of military action in international affairs. The distribution of power in the world since the collapse of the Soviet Union—not very different today, despite the rise of powers such as China and India—invites military intervention by a dominant military power unchecked by the deterrent power of any nation or grouping of nations with roughly equal strength. Finally, the contemporary international system presents an array of circumstances in which the use of force will be seen as both necessary and proper. Indeed, the number of such challenges—be they to curb proliferation, counter terrorists, curtail gross human rights violations, or counter some other threat requiring military action—is likely to increase, not decrease, in the years ahead.
Source: The Brookings Institution
Many American and foreign observers believe that the painful and so far unsuccessful intervention in Iraq will make the United States more reluctant to go to war in the future. Three powerful factors, however, suggest that, to the contrary, the United States may resort to military action more, not less, often in the future. The character of US foreign policy, manifested over two centuries, is that of a nation willing to use force with relative frequency on behalf of both principles and tangible interests and generally believing in the justness and appropriateness of military action in international affairs. The distribution of power in the world since the collapse of the Soviet Union—not very different today, despite the rise of powers such as China and India—invites military intervention by a dominant military power unchecked by the deterrent power of any nation or grouping of nations with roughly equal strength. Finally, the contemporary international system presents an array of circumstances in which the use of force will be seen as both necessary and proper. Indeed, the number of such challenges—be they to curb proliferation, counter terrorists, curtail gross human rights violations, or counter some other threat requiring military action—is likely to increase, not decrease, in the years ahead.
Friday, June 29, 2007
U.S. - Russian Relations: The Kennebunkport Agenda
U.S. - Russian Relations: The Kennebunkport Agenda
Source: Hudson Institute
From press release:
On the eve of the Bush-Putin summit meeting in Kennebunkport, four members of a Russian-American study group organized by the Hudson Institute said today that the present Russian regime is moving toward “a durable system of anti-Western authoritarian rule” and called on the U.S. to counteract this tendency by demonstrating strict fidelity to democratic principles.
Zeyno Baran, a senior fellow at Hudson, Evgeny Kiselyev, a well known Russian radio and television personality, Richard Pipes, a professor emeritus of Russian history at Harvard, and David Satter, a senior fellow at Hudson and research fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford said in the joint statement that “Russia is reverting to patterns of behavior characteristic of the Soviet Union.”
Source: Hudson Institute
From press release:
On the eve of the Bush-Putin summit meeting in Kennebunkport, four members of a Russian-American study group organized by the Hudson Institute said today that the present Russian regime is moving toward “a durable system of anti-Western authoritarian rule” and called on the U.S. to counteract this tendency by demonstrating strict fidelity to democratic principles.
Zeyno Baran, a senior fellow at Hudson, Evgeny Kiselyev, a well known Russian radio and television personality, Richard Pipes, a professor emeritus of Russian history at Harvard, and David Satter, a senior fellow at Hudson and research fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford said in the joint statement that “Russia is reverting to patterns of behavior characteristic of the Soviet Union.”
Tuesday, June 26, 2007
From Red to Gray: The “Third Transition” of Aging Populations in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union
From Red to Gray: The “Third Transition” of Aging Populations in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union
Source: World BankFrom press release:
By 2025, many countries in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union will have populations that are among the oldest in the world, posing a threat to the region’s recent economic success if pension and health care reforms are not adequately tackled and policies are not put in place to promote productivity growth.
Across the world, aging societies run the risks of severe economic consequences. Still, the Eastern Europe and former Soviet Union, comprising some 28 countries from Russia to Albania, is the only region in the world facing the combined challenges of rapid aging, relatively poor populations and an incomplete transition to mature market economies, according to a new World Bank report. For these countries, the problems are heightened by their need to simultaneously accelerate their economic transition and to urgently undertake longer-term reforms addressing demographic consequences….
Source: World BankFrom press release:
By 2025, many countries in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union will have populations that are among the oldest in the world, posing a threat to the region’s recent economic success if pension and health care reforms are not adequately tackled and policies are not put in place to promote productivity growth.
Across the world, aging societies run the risks of severe economic consequences. Still, the Eastern Europe and former Soviet Union, comprising some 28 countries from Russia to Albania, is the only region in the world facing the combined challenges of rapid aging, relatively poor populations and an incomplete transition to mature market economies, according to a new World Bank report. For these countries, the problems are heightened by their need to simultaneously accelerate their economic transition and to urgently undertake longer-term reforms addressing demographic consequences….
Monday, June 25, 2007
A Diplomatic Offensive for Iraq
A Diplomatic Offensive for Iraq
Source: The Brookings Institution
U.S. policy on Iraq must address both diplomatic and military strategy together to realize any chance for sustainable peace. That was one of the central themes of the bipartisan Iraq Study Group report, yet the need for a diplomatic strategy to achieve a political settlement among warring Iraqis has largely been ignored in the debate on whether to “surge” or “withdraw” troops.
U.S. troops in Iraq should aim to provide the security needed to create a political environment to negotiate a peace agreement to end the Iraq War. Throughout recent history, civil wars characterized by insurgency and guerilla fighting have required political settlements to achieve peace. Moreover, weak and failed states have required external assistance to achieve effective self-governance. An urgent and energetic international political effort with focused mediation is required to complement military deployments to Iraq. Both need to advance together to create the basis for sustainable peace. This mediation should be an intensive and well-coordinated joint effort of the United States, the United Nations, and the European Union.
Source: The Brookings Institution
U.S. policy on Iraq must address both diplomatic and military strategy together to realize any chance for sustainable peace. That was one of the central themes of the bipartisan Iraq Study Group report, yet the need for a diplomatic strategy to achieve a political settlement among warring Iraqis has largely been ignored in the debate on whether to “surge” or “withdraw” troops.
U.S. troops in Iraq should aim to provide the security needed to create a political environment to negotiate a peace agreement to end the Iraq War. Throughout recent history, civil wars characterized by insurgency and guerilla fighting have required political settlements to achieve peace. Moreover, weak and failed states have required external assistance to achieve effective self-governance. An urgent and energetic international political effort with focused mediation is required to complement military deployments to Iraq. Both need to advance together to create the basis for sustainable peace. This mediation should be an intensive and well-coordinated joint effort of the United States, the United Nations, and the European Union.
Russia’s Strategic Choices
Russia’s Strategic Choices
Source: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
After decades of economic and political turmoil, Russia today finds itself revived – its economy fueled by high energy prices, its territorial integrity secured, and its international role as a major world power restored. With new found self-confidence, Russia’s recent foreign policy has taken on a combative tone, exemplified by Russian President Vladmir Putin’s speech in Munich—and U.S.-Russian relations have plummeted to their lowest level since the end of the Soviet-era.
In this policy brief, Russia’s Strategic Choices, Dmitri Trenin, deputy director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, argues that Russia newfound status presents its leaders with a number of fundamental choices that the nation has yet to confront and raises key questions that it must resolve to form a cohesive and strategic foreign policy strategy.
Source: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
After decades of economic and political turmoil, Russia today finds itself revived – its economy fueled by high energy prices, its territorial integrity secured, and its international role as a major world power restored. With new found self-confidence, Russia’s recent foreign policy has taken on a combative tone, exemplified by Russian President Vladmir Putin’s speech in Munich—and U.S.-Russian relations have plummeted to their lowest level since the end of the Soviet-era.
In this policy brief, Russia’s Strategic Choices, Dmitri Trenin, deputy director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, argues that Russia newfound status presents its leaders with a number of fundamental choices that the nation has yet to confront and raises key questions that it must resolve to form a cohesive and strategic foreign policy strategy.
Thursday, June 21, 2007
Guidelines for Approaching Iran
Guidelines for Approaching Iran
Source: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
While the historic May 29 talks between the United States and Iran in Baghdad hinted at the possibility of renewed dialogue, the search for an effective foreign policy toward Iran has proven elusive for both U.S. and European administrations. The need for engagement with Iran is often cited as a major step in easing Middle East tensions and a matter of necessity to contend with Iran’s nuclear ambitions—yet remains a very difficult approach to implement.
In this Carnegie Policy Outlook, Guidelines for Approaching Iran, Carnegie Endowment Associate Karim Sadjadpour points to current realities in Iran and existing difficulties that should guide any attempts to engage Iran and influence its policies.
Source: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
While the historic May 29 talks between the United States and Iran in Baghdad hinted at the possibility of renewed dialogue, the search for an effective foreign policy toward Iran has proven elusive for both U.S. and European administrations. The need for engagement with Iran is often cited as a major step in easing Middle East tensions and a matter of necessity to contend with Iran’s nuclear ambitions—yet remains a very difficult approach to implement.
In this Carnegie Policy Outlook, Guidelines for Approaching Iran, Carnegie Endowment Associate Karim Sadjadpour points to current realities in Iran and existing difficulties that should guide any attempts to engage Iran and influence its policies.
Monday, June 18, 2007
The SIPRI Arms Transfers Database Now Available Online at No Charge
The SIPRI Arms Transfers Database
To coincide with the launch of the 2007 SIPRI Yearbook, the SIPRI Arms Transfers Project has announced that the SIPRI Arms Transfers Database is now freely accessible online. The database is regularly updated and contains information on all international transfers of major conventional weapons since 1950. As such, the database represents a truly unique resource, containing information on transfers to or from over 200 countries and rebel groups, amounting to over 20,000 individual arms deals.
Source: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
To coincide with the launch of the 2007 SIPRI Yearbook, the SIPRI Arms Transfers Project has announced that the SIPRI Arms Transfers Database is now freely accessible online. The database is regularly updated and contains information on all international transfers of major conventional weapons since 1950. As such, the database represents a truly unique resource, containing information on transfers to or from over 200 countries and rebel groups, amounting to over 20,000 individual arms deals.
Source: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Energy Taxation: Principles and Interests
Energy Taxation: Principles and Interests
Source: Urban Institute
Energy policy is an important subject these days, as Americans become increasingly aware of the costs of what President Bush has called “our addiction to oil” and the environmental costs of growing world consumption of fossil fuels. Although some foreign oil comes from friendly and politically stable countries, the world price of oil depends heavily on output in potentially hostile, war-torn, and politically unstable regions. Policy changes can help us adjust over time to an economy that uses less oil and generates less greenhouse gas emissions. This article discusses some tax policies, including energy taxes and energy tax incentives, that can be crucial components of an energy policy that addresses global warming and energy security concerns.
Source: Urban Institute
Energy policy is an important subject these days, as Americans become increasingly aware of the costs of what President Bush has called “our addiction to oil” and the environmental costs of growing world consumption of fossil fuels. Although some foreign oil comes from friendly and politically stable countries, the world price of oil depends heavily on output in potentially hostile, war-torn, and politically unstable regions. Policy changes can help us adjust over time to an economy that uses less oil and generates less greenhouse gas emissions. This article discusses some tax policies, including energy taxes and energy tax incentives, that can be crucial components of an energy policy that addresses global warming and energy security concerns.
Global Development Finance 2007: The Globalization of Corporate Finance in Developing Countries
Global Development Finance 2007: The Globalization of Corporate Finance in Developing Countries
Source: World Bank
Net private capital flows to developing countries reached a record $647 billion in 2006, although the rate of growth of these flows slowed from 34 percent in 2005 to 17 percent in 2006. Emerging Europe attracted an increasing share of the overall flows and equity financing grew much faster than debt, says Global Development Finance 2007. Despite commitments made by donors, aid flows were disappointing, and the shift from official to private sources of finance continued.
The annual World Bank report predicts that higher interest rates and emerging capacity constraints will slow the very fast growth of developing countries in the past few years, with global growth falling from 4 percent in 2006 to around 3.5 percent in 2009. This realignment could also temper some of the positive global financial conditions that have prevailed in many developing countries over the past four years.
Source: World Bank
Net private capital flows to developing countries reached a record $647 billion in 2006, although the rate of growth of these flows slowed from 34 percent in 2005 to 17 percent in 2006. Emerging Europe attracted an increasing share of the overall flows and equity financing grew much faster than debt, says Global Development Finance 2007. Despite commitments made by donors, aid flows were disappointing, and the shift from official to private sources of finance continued.
The annual World Bank report predicts that higher interest rates and emerging capacity constraints will slow the very fast growth of developing countries in the past few years, with global growth falling from 4 percent in 2006 to around 3.5 percent in 2009. This realignment could also temper some of the positive global financial conditions that have prevailed in many developing countries over the past four years.
Friday, June 15, 2007
Measuring Security and Stability in Iraq — June 2007
Measuring Security and Stability in Iraq — June 2007
Source: U.S. Department of Defense
Overall, it is too early to assess the impact of the new approach. For the period covered by this report, the additional forces to support the new approach were not fully in place, and those that were had only a limited time to conduct operations. In addition, new initiatives such as enhanced PRTs (Provincial Reconstruction Teams) and focused efforts to improve GoI (Government of Iraq) budget execution and rule of law remain in their initial stages. On the political front, reconciliation is a top priority. Economically, further provision of goods and services by the GoI that benefit the Iraqi population is required. Progress will depend on Iraqi follow-through on their commitments made as part of the new approach; the actions of insurgents, militia and terrorists to disrupt reconciliation will be a key challenge to the Iraqi government’s ability to fulfill its commitments.
Source: U.S. Department of Defense
Overall, it is too early to assess the impact of the new approach. For the period covered by this report, the additional forces to support the new approach were not fully in place, and those that were had only a limited time to conduct operations. In addition, new initiatives such as enhanced PRTs (Provincial Reconstruction Teams) and focused efforts to improve GoI (Government of Iraq) budget execution and rule of law remain in their initial stages. On the political front, reconciliation is a top priority. Economically, further provision of goods and services by the GoI that benefit the Iraqi population is required. Progress will depend on Iraqi follow-through on their commitments made as part of the new approach; the actions of insurgents, militia and terrorists to disrupt reconciliation will be a key challenge to the Iraqi government’s ability to fulfill its commitments.
Friday, June 8, 2007
Democratic Jihad ? Military intervention and democracy
Democratic Jihad ? Military intervention and democracy
Source: World Bank Policy Research Working Papers
Democracies rarely if ever fight one another, but they participate in wars as frequently as autocracies. They tend to win the wars in which they participate. Democracies frequently build large alliances in wartime, but not only with other democracies. From time to time democracies intervene militarily in ongoing conflicts. The democratic peace may contribute to a normative justification for such interventions, for the purpose of promoting democracy and eventually for the promotion of peace. This is reinforced by an emerging norm of humanitarian intervention. Democracies may have a motivation to intervene in non-democracies, even in the absence of ongoing conflict, for the purpose of regime change. The recent Iraq War may be interpreted in this perspective. A strong version of this type of foreign policy may be interpreted as a democratic crusade.
The paper examines the normative and theoretical foundations of democratic interventionism. An empirical investigation of interventions in the period 1960-96 indicates that democracies intervene quite frequently, but rarely against other democracies. In the short term, democratic intervention appears to be successfully promoting democratization, but the target states tend to end up among the unstable semi-democracies. The most widely publicized recent interventions are targeted on poor or resource-dependent countries in non-democratic neighborhoods. Previous research has found these characteristics to reduce the prospects for stable democracy. Thus, forced democratization is unpredictable with regard to achieving long-term democracy and potentially harmful with regard to securing peace. But short-term military successes may stimulate more interventions until the negative consequences become more visible.
Source: World Bank Policy Research Working Papers
Democracies rarely if ever fight one another, but they participate in wars as frequently as autocracies. They tend to win the wars in which they participate. Democracies frequently build large alliances in wartime, but not only with other democracies. From time to time democracies intervene militarily in ongoing conflicts. The democratic peace may contribute to a normative justification for such interventions, for the purpose of promoting democracy and eventually for the promotion of peace. This is reinforced by an emerging norm of humanitarian intervention. Democracies may have a motivation to intervene in non-democracies, even in the absence of ongoing conflict, for the purpose of regime change. The recent Iraq War may be interpreted in this perspective. A strong version of this type of foreign policy may be interpreted as a democratic crusade.
The paper examines the normative and theoretical foundations of democratic interventionism. An empirical investigation of interventions in the period 1960-96 indicates that democracies intervene quite frequently, but rarely against other democracies. In the short term, democratic intervention appears to be successfully promoting democratization, but the target states tend to end up among the unstable semi-democracies. The most widely publicized recent interventions are targeted on poor or resource-dependent countries in non-democratic neighborhoods. Previous research has found these characteristics to reduce the prospects for stable democracy. Thus, forced democratization is unpredictable with regard to achieving long-term democracy and potentially harmful with regard to securing peace. But short-term military successes may stimulate more interventions until the negative consequences become more visible.
Wednesday, June 6, 2007
Rethinking Insurgency
Rethinking Insurgency
Source: Institute for Strategic Studies, U.S. Army War College
The U.S. military and national security community lost interest in insurgency after the end of the Cold War when other defense issues such as multinational peacekeeping and transformation seemed more pressing. With the onset of the Global War on Terror in 2001 and the ensuing involvement of the U.S. military in counterinsurgency support in Iraq and Afghanistan, insurgency experienced renewed concern in both the defense and intelligence communities. The author argues that while exceptionally important, this relearning process focused on Cold War era nationalistic insurgencies rather than the complex conflicts which characterized the post-Cold War security environment. To be successful at counterinsurgency, he contends, the U.S. military and defense community must rethink insurgency, which has profound implications for American strategy and military doctrine.
Source: Institute for Strategic Studies, U.S. Army War College
The U.S. military and national security community lost interest in insurgency after the end of the Cold War when other defense issues such as multinational peacekeeping and transformation seemed more pressing. With the onset of the Global War on Terror in 2001 and the ensuing involvement of the U.S. military in counterinsurgency support in Iraq and Afghanistan, insurgency experienced renewed concern in both the defense and intelligence communities. The author argues that while exceptionally important, this relearning process focused on Cold War era nationalistic insurgencies rather than the complex conflicts which characterized the post-Cold War security environment. To be successful at counterinsurgency, he contends, the U.S. military and defense community must rethink insurgency, which has profound implications for American strategy and military doctrine.
Friday, June 1, 2007
China’s Economic Fluctuations and Their Implications for Its Rural Economy
China’s Economic Fluctuations and Their Implications for Its Rural Economy
Source: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
A new report from Carnegie Endowment Senior Associate Albert Keidel finds that China’s rapid growth over the past quarter century has not been export-led but rather is driven by domestic demand, even in recent years when China’s global trade surplus has rapidly expanded. The report also concludes that China ’s management of its economic fluctuations since the 1980s has systematically disadvantaged the rural economy.
The report, which analyzes both fast-growth and slow-growth phases of China ’s rapid expansion since 1978, shows that shifts in domestic demand, and not shifts in exports, explain growth patterns.
Source: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
A new report from Carnegie Endowment Senior Associate Albert Keidel finds that China’s rapid growth over the past quarter century has not been export-led but rather is driven by domestic demand, even in recent years when China’s global trade surplus has rapidly expanded. The report also concludes that China ’s management of its economic fluctuations since the 1980s has systematically disadvantaged the rural economy.
The report, which analyzes both fast-growth and slow-growth phases of China ’s rapid expansion since 1978, shows that shifts in domestic demand, and not shifts in exports, explain growth patterns.
The Journal of South Asian Non-Proliferation
The Journal of South Asian Non-Proliferation is a new online compendium of non-proliferation related publications from The South Asian Strategic Stability Institute (SASSI). It is a periodic compilation of news, official statements, and expert analyses related to South Asian non-proliferation issues.
Thursday, May 31, 2007
Global Peace Index and Sustainability
Global Peace Index and Sustainability
Source: Vision of Humanity/Economist Intelligence Unit/Centre for Peace and Conflict Studies
From introduction:
The Economist Intelligence Unit, in conjunction with an international team of academics and peace experts, has compiled an innovative new Global Peace Index (GPI), which ranks 120 nations according to their relative peacefulness. The Global Peace Index is composed of 24 indicators, ranging from a nation’s level of military expenditure to its relations with neighbouring countries and the level of respect for human rights. The index has been tested against a range of potential “drivers” or determinants of peace—including levels of democracy and transparency, education and material wellbeing. The team has used the latest available figures (mainly 2004-06) from a wide range of respected sources, including the International Institute of Strategic Studies, The World Bank, various UN offices and Peace Institutes and the Economist Intelligence Unit. The Global Peace Index is intended to contribute significantly to the public debate on peace.
Source: Vision of Humanity/Economist Intelligence Unit/Centre for Peace and Conflict Studies
From introduction:
The Economist Intelligence Unit, in conjunction with an international team of academics and peace experts, has compiled an innovative new Global Peace Index (GPI), which ranks 120 nations according to their relative peacefulness. The Global Peace Index is composed of 24 indicators, ranging from a nation’s level of military expenditure to its relations with neighbouring countries and the level of respect for human rights. The index has been tested against a range of potential “drivers” or determinants of peace—including levels of democracy and transparency, education and material wellbeing. The team has used the latest available figures (mainly 2004-06) from a wide range of respected sources, including the International Institute of Strategic Studies, The World Bank, various UN offices and Peace Institutes and the Economist Intelligence Unit. The Global Peace Index is intended to contribute significantly to the public debate on peace.
New Grants to Deal With Explosives Remnants of War and Landmines
New Grants to Deal With Explosives Remnants of War and Landmines
Source: U.S. Department of State
The United States has launched another effort to strengthen peace and post-conflict recovery. The Office of Weapons Removal and Abatement in the U.S. Department of State’s Bureau of Political-Military Affairs has awarded a total of more than $2.2 million to twenty-three non-governmental organizations to clean up former battle areas – most of which are littered by landmines and explosive remnants of war left by other countries – teach mine risk education, assist mine survivors, and conduct related research. The U.S. is the global leader in efforts to save lives by confronting the dangers posed by persistent landmines and all explosive remnants of war, including unexploded cluster munitions.
These grants, described below, augment the Department’s projected FY 2007 budget of over $65.3 million for humanitarian mine action and small arms/light weapons abatement.
Source: U.S. Department of State
The United States has launched another effort to strengthen peace and post-conflict recovery. The Office of Weapons Removal and Abatement in the U.S. Department of State’s Bureau of Political-Military Affairs has awarded a total of more than $2.2 million to twenty-three non-governmental organizations to clean up former battle areas – most of which are littered by landmines and explosive remnants of war left by other countries – teach mine risk education, assist mine survivors, and conduct related research. The U.S. is the global leader in efforts to save lives by confronting the dangers posed by persistent landmines and all explosive remnants of war, including unexploded cluster munitions.
These grants, described below, augment the Department’s projected FY 2007 budget of over $65.3 million for humanitarian mine action and small arms/light weapons abatement.
Adapting to Climate Change: What’s Needed in Poor Countries and Who Should Pay
Adapting to Climate Change: What’s Needed in Poor Countries and Who Should Pay
(PDF; 493 KB)
Source: Oxfam AmericaFrom press release:
Human-induced climate change is already causing harm to the world’s poorest people, who are the least responsible for emissions and least able to adapt to climatic shocks, according to a new report published today ahead of the G8 summit by international agency Oxfam. The agency called on G8 countries to urgently take action to keep global warming below 2° Celsius (3.6° Fahrenheit) and pledge to help poorest cope with the impacts.
“Poor countries should not have to pay for damage caused by the emissions of rich countries,” said Raymond C. Offenheiser, President of Oxfam America. “As world leaders head to the G8 summit in Germany, they must be prepared to cut their emissions and to start helping poor countries to cope with the high costs of adaptation.”
The report, “Adapting to Climate Change: What’s Needed in Poor Countries and Who Should Pay,” estimates that poor countries will need around $50 billion a year to adapt to the harmful effects of climate change, a conservative estimate that will rise sharply if emissions are not cut drastically.
(PDF; 493 KB)
Source: Oxfam AmericaFrom press release:
Human-induced climate change is already causing harm to the world’s poorest people, who are the least responsible for emissions and least able to adapt to climatic shocks, according to a new report published today ahead of the G8 summit by international agency Oxfam. The agency called on G8 countries to urgently take action to keep global warming below 2° Celsius (3.6° Fahrenheit) and pledge to help poorest cope with the impacts.
“Poor countries should not have to pay for damage caused by the emissions of rich countries,” said Raymond C. Offenheiser, President of Oxfam America. “As world leaders head to the G8 summit in Germany, they must be prepared to cut their emissions and to start helping poor countries to cope with the high costs of adaptation.”
The report, “Adapting to Climate Change: What’s Needed in Poor Countries and Who Should Pay,” estimates that poor countries will need around $50 billion a year to adapt to the harmful effects of climate change, a conservative estimate that will rise sharply if emissions are not cut drastically.
Wednesday, May 30, 2007
Fighting on Two Fronts: Secular Parties in the Arab World
Fighting on Two Fronts: Secular Parties in the Arab World
Source: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Without strong secular parties, political competition in the Arab world could be reduced to a dangerous head-on confrontation between Islamist parties and the incumbent governments. Yet secular parties—a broad term referring to organizations that do not embrace a political platform inspired by religious ideals—are clearly facing a crisis in the Arab world as they struggle for influence, relevance, and in some cases, survival.
In a new Carnegie Paper, Fighting on Two Fronts: Secular Parties in the Arab World, Carnegie Endowment Senior Associates Marina Ottaway and Amr Hamzawy explore the uncertain future of secular parties across the Arab world by examining their role in Morocco, Egypt, Yemen, and Kuwait. The authors argue that secular parties need to reform their vision, message, and organization to be able to affect the political system in a meaningful way.
Source: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Without strong secular parties, political competition in the Arab world could be reduced to a dangerous head-on confrontation between Islamist parties and the incumbent governments. Yet secular parties—a broad term referring to organizations that do not embrace a political platform inspired by religious ideals—are clearly facing a crisis in the Arab world as they struggle for influence, relevance, and in some cases, survival.
In a new Carnegie Paper, Fighting on Two Fronts: Secular Parties in the Arab World, Carnegie Endowment Senior Associates Marina Ottaway and Amr Hamzawy explore the uncertain future of secular parties across the Arab world by examining their role in Morocco, Egypt, Yemen, and Kuwait. The authors argue that secular parties need to reform their vision, message, and organization to be able to affect the political system in a meaningful way.
Central Asia’s Energy Risks
Central Asia’s Energy Risks
Source: International Crisis Group
Oil and gas are proving as much a burden as a benefit to Central Asia. The three oil and gas producers in the region – Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan – are showing signs of the “resource curse” under which energy-rich nations fail to thrive or develop distorted, unstable economies. Geography and their history in the Soviet Union have bound them to Russia, through which most of their energy exports must be transported. Moscow is proving to be an unreliable partner for foreign consumers as it has been willing to cut off pipelines to apply commercial or political pressure. Low investment, corruption and gross mismanagement in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan may mean that their supplies run low before they can diversify their links to markets or their economies. Central Asia is likely to see energy create instability within the region; the chances are low that it will be a factor in improving European energy security any time soon.
Source: International Crisis Group
Oil and gas are proving as much a burden as a benefit to Central Asia. The three oil and gas producers in the region – Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan – are showing signs of the “resource curse” under which energy-rich nations fail to thrive or develop distorted, unstable economies. Geography and their history in the Soviet Union have bound them to Russia, through which most of their energy exports must be transported. Moscow is proving to be an unreliable partner for foreign consumers as it has been willing to cut off pipelines to apply commercial or political pressure. Low investment, corruption and gross mismanagement in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan may mean that their supplies run low before they can diversify their links to markets or their economies. Central Asia is likely to see energy create instability within the region; the chances are low that it will be a factor in improving European energy security any time soon.
Wednesday, May 23, 2007
World Economic and Social Survey 2007: Development in an Ageing World
World Economic and Social Survey 2007: Development in an Ageing World
The World Economic and Social Survey 2007 analyses the challenges and opportunities associated with ageing populations and aims to facilitate discussions in furthering the Madrid International Plan of Action on Ageing, adopted by consensus by the Second World Assembly on Ageing on 12 April 2002. The Madrid Plan of Action focuses on three sets of priorities: older people and development; advancing health and well-being into old age; and enabling and supportive environments for older persons.
The Survey underscores the need to fully recognize and better harness the productive and social contributions to societies that older persons can make but are, in many instances, prevented from making. It also emphasizes what is among the most pressing of challenges: that arising from the prospect of a shrinking labour force that must support an increasingly larger older population. Moreover, changes in intergenerational relationships may affect the provision of care and income security for older persons, particularly in developing countries where family transfers often play a major role. Thus, societies must also cater for the particular needs of older populations in terms of the requisite health care, assistance in case of disabilities and appropriate living conditions.
Source: Economic and Social Council, UN
The World Economic and Social Survey 2007 analyses the challenges and opportunities associated with ageing populations and aims to facilitate discussions in furthering the Madrid International Plan of Action on Ageing, adopted by consensus by the Second World Assembly on Ageing on 12 April 2002. The Madrid Plan of Action focuses on three sets of priorities: older people and development; advancing health and well-being into old age; and enabling and supportive environments for older persons.
The Survey underscores the need to fully recognize and better harness the productive and social contributions to societies that older persons can make but are, in many instances, prevented from making. It also emphasizes what is among the most pressing of challenges: that arising from the prospect of a shrinking labour force that must support an increasingly larger older population. Moreover, changes in intergenerational relationships may affect the provision of care and income security for older persons, particularly in developing countries where family transfers often play a major role. Thus, societies must also cater for the particular needs of older populations in terms of the requisite health care, assistance in case of disabilities and appropriate living conditions.
Source: Economic and Social Council, UN
Evaluation Of Human Security: United Nations Development Programme Support To Conflict-Affected Countries
Evaluation Of Human Security: United Nations Development Programme Support To Conflict-Affected Countries
133 pages; PDF.
Nearly 33 million people around the world were rendered homeless last year due to violent conflicts. The many agencies of the UN system are actively engaged in supporting these communities to reclaim the right to live with dignity and security. Crisis prevention and recovery is a core practice area for UNDP, with activities in conflict-affected countries constituting nearly 40 percent of global expenditure in 2005. Given the significance of this work, the UNDP Executive Board requested the Evaluation Office to conduct an independent evaluation of UNDP assistance to conflict affected countries.
Source: United Nations Development Programme
133 pages; PDF.
Nearly 33 million people around the world were rendered homeless last year due to violent conflicts. The many agencies of the UN system are actively engaged in supporting these communities to reclaim the right to live with dignity and security. Crisis prevention and recovery is a core practice area for UNDP, with activities in conflict-affected countries constituting nearly 40 percent of global expenditure in 2005. Given the significance of this work, the UNDP Executive Board requested the Evaluation Office to conduct an independent evaluation of UNDP assistance to conflict affected countries.
Source: United Nations Development Programme
Tuesday, May 22, 2007
International Energy Outlook 2007
International Energy Outlook 2007
The International Energy Outlook 2007 (IEO2007) presents an assessment by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the outlook for international energy markets through 2030. U.S. projections appearing in IEO2007 are consistent with those published in EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2007 (AEO2007), which was prepared using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS).
Source: Energy Information Administration
The International Energy Outlook 2007 (IEO2007) presents an assessment by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the outlook for international energy markets through 2030. U.S. projections appearing in IEO2007 are consistent with those published in EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2007 (AEO2007), which was prepared using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS).
Source: Energy Information Administration
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