From Evil Empire to Axis of Evil

From Evil Empire to Axis of Evil

Source: Oxford Research Group

In one sense, the dangers of the Cold War were obvious, and organisations such as Oxford Research Group were able to point to those dangers as they sought engagement and dialogue. There was always the risk of going over the precipice -a global nuclear war that would set the human community back centuries. Now we are in a more difficult circumstance in that it is more like a slippery slope than a precipice.Moreover, on issues such as climate change there have to be huge changes in policy in the next five to ten years to avoid problems twenty or thirty years hence.That is something that cannot easily be embraced by most political systems and is going to require an immense increase in the engagement of civil society.It will also require intensive dialogue with political, business and military leaders.In respect of the need for such dialogue, at least, little has changed since the Cold War years.

Regional Threats and Security Strategy: The Troubling Case of Today’s Middle East

Regional Threats and Security Strategy: The Troubling Case of Today’s Middle East

Source: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College

The United States needs to undertake a strategic regional net assessment that examines the following issues as it seeks to construct a regional security strategy to protect its interests and mitigate wider threats to international security. That net assessment should include reviewing the role of security guarantees in promoting regional stability, an acknowledgement of the contradictory nature of the inter- and intra state threats and tensions, and the negative impact that the U.S. obsession with force protection is having on its ability to effectively implement strategy on the ground.

Full Paper (PDF; 285 KB)

A Dangerous Opportunity: American Defense Policy at a Crossroads

A Dangerous Opportunity: American Defense Policy at a Crossroads

Source: National Security Outlook (American Enterprise Institute)

America’s military policy is in disarray, but not for the reason most people think. For the first time since around 1950, there is no coherent theoretical framework for thinking about how to shape our armed forces for current and future threats. This fact presents both a danger and an opportunity. The danger is that we will either fail to develop one and therefore drift aimlessly at a troubled time, or that we will reach back to some of the tattered remnants of the theories that guided military policy until 2007. But we now have the opportunity for a serious discussion about the shape of the world today and its likely shape tomorrow.

Department of Defense Releases Selected Acquisition Reports

Department of Defense Releases Selected Acquisition Reports

Source: U.S. Department of Defense

The Department of Defense (DoD) has released details on major defense acquisition program cost, schedule, and performance changes since the June 2007 reporting period. This information is based on the Selected Acquisition Reports (SARs) submitted to the Congress for the September 2007 reporting period.

SARs summarize the latest estimates of cost, schedule, and performance status. These reports are prepared annually in conjunction with the President’s budget. Subsequent quarterly exception reports are required only for those programs experiencing unit cost increases of at least 15 percent or schedule delays of at least six months. Quarterly SARs are also submitted for initial reports, final reports, and for programs that are rebaselined at major milestone decisions.

+ SAR Program Acquisition Cost Summary (Dollars in Millions) As Of Date: September 30, 2007 (PDF; 14 KB)

GPO Creates Its First Ever On-Line Guide To Members Of Congress

Guide to House and Senate Members

From the announcement:

The U.S. Government Printing Office (GPO) creates a one stop website with easy searchable information on all Members of Congress. A simple click will bring the user to a picture and biography of any current member of the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate. This information previously was available in separate databases, but now can be accessed from one central point. GPO worked closely with the Joint Committee on Printing (JCP), Clerk of the House and Secretary of Senate on the design and usability of this website.

Building Partner Capabilities for Coalition Operations

Building Partner Capabilities for Coalition Operations

Source: RAND Corporation

Ongoing operations and emerging mission requirements place a heavy burden on Army resources, resulting in capability gaps that the Army is unable to fill by itself. This report argues that one way to fill those gaps is by building the appropriate capabilities in allies and partner armies through focused security cooperation. It argues that U.S. Army planners need a more comprehensive understanding of the types of capability gaps that partner armies might fill and a process for matching those gaps with candidate partner armies. The report begins by providing a theoretical context for building partner capacity and capabilities. It then discusses seven illustrative train and equip programs (TEPs) to identify specific lessons to inform Army planning and execution of TEPs in the future. It gives insights on the importance of developing and implementing metrics for security cooperation, an essential step in ensuring that Army activities are successful. The report then identifies U.S. Army capability gaps through a review of strategic and operational guidance documents and Army and joint studies. It outlines a five-step process for matching U.S. Army capability gaps with candidate partner armies, which include (1) determining the relative importance of capability gaps to the U.S. Army in specific situations, (2) considering the level of effort required to build the capability in a partner army, (3) identifying capabilities of shared interest to the U.S. Army and the partner army, (4) identifying candidate partner armies based on past participation in U.S.-led operations, and (5) determining existing partner army capabilities. The process aims to help Army planners identify which capabilities are of mutual benefit to the United States and partner nations. The report concludes with specific recommendations for Headquarters, Department of the Army, which should, at a minimum, include adopting this five-step process and focusing its efforts on those capability gaps that best support joint requirements.

The Eastern Dimension of America’s New European Allies

The Eastern Dimension of America’s New European Allies

Source: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College

Without a realistic prospect for NATO and EU accession, Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, and Georgia will become sources of domestic and regional instability and objects of Russia’s neo-imperialist ambitions that will undermine American and European strategic interests. The new members of NATO and the EU have sought to develop credible policies for consolidating democratic reforms among their eastern neighbors, enhancing their prospects for inclusion in NATO and the EU, and containing a resurgent and assertive Russia. The new European democracies have also endeavored to more closely involve Washington in the process of Euro-Atlantic enlargement as a more effective Eastern Dimension jointly pursued by the U.S., NATO, and the EU would significantly consolidate trans-Atlantic security.

Nicolas Sarkozy: The Hyperpresident

Nicolas Sarkozy: The Hyperpresident

Source: The Brookings Institution

Sarkozy’s honeymoon, of course, will not last forever. The vested interests who oppose change will resist and try to sabotage his reforms, the government will inevitably make mistakes, and, eventually, the opposition will find its feet (and new leaders). Most important, if recent signs that the French economy is slowing bear out, the government’s popularity—and its abilityto implement its promised reforms—will take a severe hit, as unemployment and budget deficits mount. Even so, it is hard to avoid the conclusion that something significant has happened in France. The French have elected a leader who has promised to break with thirty years of welfare-state stasis at home and conventional risk-averse diplomacy abroad, and whose energy, dynamism and ambition have not been seen since the foundation of the Fifth Republic in 1 958. Sarkozy’s success in reforming France over the next five years is far from guaranteed. More certain is that this determined hyperprésident is going to try, and that France will never be the same again.

Women and Human Security: The Case of Post Conflict Afghanistan

Women and Human Security: The Case of Post Conflict Afghanistan

Source: WIIS Words (via RAND Corporation)

A study recently conducted by the RAND Corporation looked at the role of women in post-conflict nation-building, with particular focus on Afghanistan. Our findings suggest that a stronger emphasis on the broader concept of human security from the earliest phases of the nation-building effort; a focus on establishing governance on the principles of equity and consistent rule of law from the start; and, as a component of both of these things, women’s earliest inclusion in reconstruction activities are likely to improve the outcomes of post-conflict nation-building.

Russian Defence Procurement in 2007

Russian Defence Procurement in 2007

Source: Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies (CAST)

In 2007 Russia’s national defence procurement (NDP) amounted to 302.7 billion rubles (app. $11.6 billion), which marks an increase of 27.9% over 2006. Of this sum, $5.6 billion (47.9%) will be spent on purchases of new equipment, $2.3 billion (19.8%) on repairs and modernization, and $3.7 billion (32.2%) on R&D. Appropriations for purchases, repairs and modernization, and R&D grew by 25.5%, 23.6% and 34.4%, respectively.

NDP-2007 includes purchases of new equipment and the continuation of long-term programs begun in the late 1980s and early 1990s. The latter consists mostly of Navy projects, given their high cost and relatively long production cycles, when compared to the equipment of other services. Published data tends to support official statements that mass purchases of serially-produced items are planned, especially with regard to the Navy, though the scale of such purchases remains rather low.

Significant sums (41% of the sum, reserved for purchasing of the new equipment) have also been allocated to repairs and modernization. Given the Defence Ministry’s tradition of procuring new equipment for its strategic nuclear forces, most of funds assigned to repairs and modernization will be devoted to conventional weaponry. In 2007, the strategic forces will acquire 17 land and sea-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) - a post-Soviet record, according to published information - finance the construction of three ballistic nuclear missile submarines and acquire new strategic bomber.

Upgrading Authoritarianism in the Arab World

Upgrading Authoritarianism in the Arab World

Source: The Brookings Institution

After twenty years, Arab regimes have become proficient at containing and disarming democracy promotion—if not exploiting it for their own purposes. Strategies that take advantage of the openings offered by authoritarian upgrading are more likely to advance democratic change in the Middle East than the continuation of policies that do not take into account how governance in the Arab world is being transformed. Two openings hold out particular promise:

First, adapting U.S. democracy promotion policies to exploit more effectively the openings that upgrading itself produces;

Second, taking steps to weaken the coalitions on which upgrading depends.

Both will require substantial adjustments in U.S. democracy promotion policies.

Network Technologies for Networked Terrorists: Assessing the Value of Information and Communication Technologies to Modern Terrorist Organizations

Network Technologies for Networked Terrorists: Assessing the Value of Information and Communication Technologies to Modern Terrorist Organizations

Source: RAND Corporation

Understanding how terrorists conduct successful operations is critical to countering them. Terrorist organizations use a wide range of network technologies as they plan and stage attacks. This book explores the role that these communications and computer technologies play and the net effect of their use, the purpose and manner in which the technology is used, the operational actions of terrorists and possible responses of security forces. The authors conclude that future network technologies modestly improve terrorist group efficiency, particularly for their supporting activities, but do not dramatically improve their attack operations. Precluding terrorists from getting the technology they want is impractical; developing direct counters is unlikely to yield high payoffs. Instead, exploiting the technologies and the information such technologies use to enable more direct security force operations are more promising options.

Irregular Warfare Joint Operating Concept

Irregular Warfare Joint Operating Concept

Source: U.S. Department of Defense

Irregular warfare (IW) is defined as a violent struggle among state and nonstate actors for legitimacy and influence over the relevant populations. IW favors indirect and asymmetric approaches, though it may employ the full range of military and other capabilities, in order to erode an adversary’s power, influence, and will. It is inherently a protracted struggle that will test the resolve of our Nation and our strategic partners.

Our adversaries will pursue IW strategies, employing a hybrid of irregular, disruptive, traditional, and catastrophic capabilities to undermine and erode the influence and will of the United States and our strategic partners. Meeting these challenges and combating this approach will require the concerted efforts of all available instruments of US national power.

Conventional Arms Transfers to Developing Nations, 1999-2006

Conventional Arms Transfers to Developing Nations, 1999-2006

Source: Congressional Research Service (via OpenCRS)

This report is prepared annually to provide Congress with official, unclassified, quantitative data on conventional arms transfers to developing nations by the United States and foreign countries for the preceding eight calendar years for use in its policy oversight functions. All agreement and delivery data in this report for the United States are government-to-government Foreign Military Sales transactions. Some general data are provided on worldwide conventional arms transfers by all suppliers, but the principal focus is the level of arms transfers by major weapons suppliers to nations in the developing world. Developing nations continue to be the primary focus of foreign arms sales activity by weapons suppliers.

Can’t Win with ‘Em, Can’t Go To War without ‘Em: Private Military Contractors and Counterinsurgency

Can’t Win with ‘Em, Can’t Go To War without ‘Em: Private Military Contractors and Counterinsurgency

Source: The Brookings Institution

The recent incident involving Blackwater contractors in Iraq has brought to light a series of questions surrounding the legal status, oversight, management, and accountability of the private military force in Iraq. This for-hire force numbers more than 160,000, more than the number of uniformed military personnel in Iraq, and it is a good thing that attention is finally being paid to the consequences of our outsourcing critical tasks to private firms.

An underlying question, though, is largely being ignored: whether it made sense to have civilians in this role in the first place. Regardless of whether the Blackwater contractors were right or wrong in the recent shootings, or even whether there is proper jurisdiction to ensure their accountability or not, there is a crucial problem.

The use of private military contractors appears to have harmed, rather than helped the counterinsurgency efforts of the U.S. mission in Iraq. Even worse, it has created a dependency syndrome on the private marketplace that not merely creates critical vulnerabilities, but shows all the signs of the last downward spirals of an addiction. If we judge by what has happened in Iraq, when it comes to private military contractors and counterinsurgency, the U.S. has locked itself into a vicious cycle. It can’t win with them, but can’t go to war without them.

Getting the Policies Right: The Prioritization and Sequencing of Policies in Post-Conflict Countries

Getting the Policies Right: The Prioritization and Sequencing of Policies in Post-Conflict Countries

Source: RAND Corporation

One of the most pressing issues of post-conflict reconstruction is how to prioritize and sequence political, social, and economic policies to enable post-conflict countries to sustain peace and reduce the risk of violence reoccurring. This dissertation analyzes three cases of post-conflict reconstruction, Cambodia, Mozambique, and Haiti, surveys expert opinions of 30 academicians and practitioners, identifies major reconstruction policies, outlines the preferred way to prioritize and sequence them, and develops a framework to help policymakers better navigate the complexities and challenges of forming appropriate policies It finds that security and development are interdependent. However, in the early stages of reconstruction, security must be achieved first. After security, important policy priorities should be building effective, accountable, and inclusive governance institutions, institutionalizing democracy at the national and local levels through free, fair, participatory, and inclusive elections. Similarly, economic stabilization is needed to revive market, attract investment, generate employment opportunity, and create an environment for economic recovery and stability.

Is the “Surge” Working? Some New Facts

Is the “Surge” Working? Some New Facts

Source: The Brookings Institution

There is a paucity of facts about the effects of the recent military “Surge” on conditions in Iraq and whether it is paving the way for a stable Iraq. Selective, anecdotal and incomplete analyses abound. Policy makers and defense planners must decide which measures of success or failure are most important, but until now few, if any, systematic analyses were available on which to base those decisions. This paper applies modern statistical techniques to a new data file derived from more than a dozen of the most reliable and widely-cited sources to assess the Surge’s impact on three key dimensions: the functioning of the Iraqi state (including civilian casualties); military casualties; and financial markets’ assessment of Iraq’s future. The new and unusually rigorous findings presented here should help inform current evaluations of the Surge and provide a basis for better decision making about future strategy.

Potentially Constructive Implications of Disaster in Iraq

Potentially Constructive Implications of Disaster in Iraq

Source: Center for International and Security Studies, University of Maryland

It now appears likely that the invasion of Iraq will prove to be a seminal event in the evolution of international security generally. Legal order has evidently collapsed throughout the country, and the occupying forces have not been able to control the resulting pattern of predatory violence. The central reason is that the United States forfeited at the outset the critical asset of legitimacy necessary to establish and maintain consensual rule, and its continued presence undermines the indigenous institutions it is attempting to nurture. Similar breakdowns have occurred in other parts of the world, and the consequences have been tolerated over extended periods of time. Because of timing, location and the entanglement of the United States, however, intractable violence in Iraq can be expected to have much stronger global resonance. American forces alone are not likely to be able to master the situation but neither can they be withdrawn without intensifying internal violence and extending it into an already volatile region. The potential consequences of that dilemma are ominous, but for that reason the situation presents opportunity as well as danger. Calamity is sometimes a catalyst for greater wisdom.

Salvaging the Possible: Policy Options in Iraq

Salvaging the Possible: Policy Options in Iraq

Source: The Brookings Institution

Bosnia, Kosovo, Somalia, Congo, Mozambique, Northern Ireland and countless other conflicts have shown that civil wars require a political solution. In civil wars, military forces can keep a lid on the violence to make a political solution possible, but force alone will not translate into sustainable peace. Understanding this reality gives even greater urgency to understanding Iraq as a failed state. U.S. political strategy for Iraq has amounted to setting political benchmarks demanding that a failed Iraqi nation ensnared in a sectarian civil war fix itself. That will not happen, no matter how much pressure we apply. Nor will Iraq rebuild itself under conditions of war. If the United States could not successfully disburse the $18 billion Congress appropriated for reconstruction in 2003, we should not expect a dysfunctional Iraqi state to meet President Bush’s benchmarks on reconstruction, political reconciliation, and security.

If anything has been demonstrated by the Bush administration’s surge strategy, it is that a high concentration of American troops in the relatively small area of Baghdad can nominally improve security in that area. Yet all other indicators on political reconciliation and capacity building give no sense of confidence that nominal security improvements can be extended elsewhere without a comparable American force presence, while also maintaining increased force levels in Baghdad. U.S. domestic politics and the strain on American forces make any such scenario untenable.

Iraq: Time for a Change

Iraq: Time for a Change

Source: U.S. Institute of Peace

War in Iraq has lasted more than four years. It has required far greater resources than anticipated. The longer-term goals are still far from realization. The price the United States and Iraq are paying in blood and treasure continues to mount. The time has come to chart a clearer path forward, taking into account the regional and global contexts. Americans want an approach that protects U.S. vital interests and can therefore be supported across a wide range of the political spectrum.

As Washington prepares for a critical debate in Congress this fall on what should be done in Iraq, the United States Institute of Peace convened over the summer a group of experts with many different political affiliations to consider next steps over a three-year time horizon. This USIPeace Briefing, prepared by Daniel Serwer, USIP vice president for peace and stability operations, describes their main conclusions. Areas of serious disagreement are noted. Those participants in the discussions wishing to be identified are listed at the end.

U.S. Democracy Promotion During and After Bush

U.S. Democracy Promotion During and After Bush

Source: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Despite sweeping rhetoric about the global spread of democracy, the Bush Administration has significantly damaged U.S. democracy promotion efforts and increased the number of close ties with “friendly tyrants,” concludes a new report from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Security interests, such as the war on terrorism, and U.S. energy needs have led the Bush Administration to maintain friendly, unchallenged relations with more than half of the forty-five “non-free” countries in the world.

Carnegie Vice President for Studies Thomas Carothers argues in his new report, U.S. Democracy Promotion During and After Bush, that the main U.S. presidential candidates have voiced support for democracy promotion, but not yet outlined plans to put it back on track. Carothers analyzes the Bush Administration’s record on democracy promotion and its effect on democracy worldwide, and then presents fresh ideas about the role democracy promotion can and should play in future U.S. policies.

The Report of the Independent Commission on the Security Forces in Iraq

The Report of the Independent Commission on the Security Forces in Iraq

Source: Iraqi Security Forces Independent Assessment Commission

ISF Overall Assessment: The Commission finds that in general, the Iraqi Security Forces, military and police, have made uneven progress, but that there should be increasing improvement in both their readiness and their capability to provide for the internal security of Iraq. With regard to external dangers, the evidence indicates that the Iraqi Security Forces will not be able to secure Iraqi borders against conventional military threats in the near term.
While severely deficient in combat support and combat service support capabilities, the new Iraqi armed forces, especially the Army, show clear evidence of developing the baseline infrastructures that lead to the successful formation of a national defense capability. The Commission concurs with the view expressed by U.S., Coalition, and Iraqi experts that the Iraqi Army is capable of taking over an increasing amount of day-to-day combat responsibilities from the Coalition forces. In any event, the ISF will be unable to fulfill their essential security responsibilities independently over the next 12-18 months.

Note: Redacted for public release.

Right Sizing the People’s Liberation Army: Exploring the Contours of China’s Military

Right Sizing the People’s Liberation Army: Exploring the Contours of China’s Military

Source: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College

This volume addresses how the leadership of China and the PLA view what size of PLA best meets China’s requirements. Among other things, this analytical process makes important new contributions on the question of PLA transparency, long an issue among PLA watchers. A great deal of emphasis has been put on understanding not only how, but also why a military modernizes itself. Some of the determining factors are national policies and strategy, doctrine, organizational structure, missions, and service cultures. While this list is not exhaustive, it does begin to paint a picture of just how broad and deep military interests run. It is important when we look at the structure and strategy for growth within the Chinese military that we see the world as China sees it. We need to see a world in which the “Taiwan issue” as well as that of North Korea and others are not viewed as short-term concerns, but fit into how China sees itself in a long-term leadership role in the region and in the world.

Security, Displacement and Iraq: A Deadly Combination

Security, Displacement and Iraq: A Deadly Combination

Source: Brookings Institution

Since the 2003 invasion of Iraq, millions of Iraqis have been forced to flee their homes. They have fled from coalition military operations, widespread sectarian violence, and fear. Today there are around 2 million Iraqis displaced inside their country and another 2 million displaced beyond the national borders, the bulk of them in Syria and Jordan. As the security situation continues to deteriorate inside Iraq, human displacement escalates to levels unparalleled in the region since the Palestinian displacement nearly sixty years ago.…

This study examines the relationship between security and displacement in Iraq by first exploring implications of the large-scale displacement on Iraq’s domestic security. It then considers the impact of the external displacement on the security of two of Iraq’s neighbors: Jordan and Syria.

Foreign Relations of the United States

Foreign Relations of the United States

The Foreign Relations of the United States series is the official documentary historical record of major U.S. foreign policy decisions that have been declassified and edited for publication. The series is produced by the State Department's Office of the Historian and printed volumes are available from the Government Printing Office.

FRUS begins with the administration of Abraham Lincoln in 1861. There are two cumulative indexes covering 1861-1899 and 1900-1918. The organization of FRUS is generally chronological, but the dates of the volumes do not necessarily reflect the dates of documentary history. For example, the volumes for 1900-1918 do not include the records dealing with World War I or the Russian Revolution. Each volume has a subject and author index. There is also typically a table of sources and abbreviations at the beginning of each volume.

Many volumes published since 1960 are available online on the State Department website that is maintained by the University of Illinois at Chicago. A full description of Foreign Relations of the United States, including a listing of the online FRUS volumes, is available from the Office of the Historian website.

Latin America’s New Security Reality: Irregular Asymmetric Conflict and Hugo Chavez

Latin America’s New Security Reality: Irregular Asymmetric Conflict and Hugo Chavez

Source: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College

In 2005, Dr. Manwaring wrote a monograph entitled Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez, Bolivarian Socialism, and Asymmetric Warfare. It came at a time when the United States and Venezuela were accelerating a verbal sparing match regarding which country was destabilizing Latin America more. President Chavez shows no sign of standing down; he slowly and deliberately centralizes his power in Venezuela, and carefully and adroitly articulates his Bolivarian dream (the idea of a Latin American Liberation Movement against U.S. economic and political imperialism). Yet, most North Americans dismiss Chavez as a “nut case,” or—even if he is a threat to the security and stability of the Hemisphere—the possibilities of that threat coming to fruition are too far into the future to worry about. Dr. Manwaring’s intent is to explain in greater depth what President Chavez is doing and how he is doing it.

First, he explains that Hugo Chavez’s threat is straightforward, and that it is being translated into a consistent, subtle, ambiguous, and ambitious struggle for power that is beginning to insinuate itself into political life in much of the Western Hemisphere. Second, he shows how President Chavez is encouraging his Venezuelan and other followers to pursue a confrontational, populist, and nationalistic agenda that will be achieved only by (1) radically changing the traditional politics of the Venezuelan state—and other Latin American states—to that of “direct” (totalitarian) democracy; (2) destroying North American hegemony throughout all of Latin America by conducting an irregular Fourth-Generation War “Super Insurgency”; and, (3) country-by-country, building a great new Bolivarian state out of a phased Program for the Liberation of Latin America.

The Terrorism Index

The Terrorism Index

Source: Foreign Policy and the Center for American Progress

Surveying more than 100 of America’s top foreign-policy experts—Republicans and Democrats alike—the Foreign Policy/Center for American Progress Terrorism Index is the only comprehensive, nonpartisan effort to mine the highest echelons of the nation’s foreign-policy establishment for its assessment of how the United States is fighting the war on terror. First released in July 2006, and again last February, the index attempts to draw definitive conclusions about the war’s priorities, policies, and progress. Its participants include people who have served as secretary of state, national security advisor, senior White House aides, top commanders in the U.S. military, seasoned intelligence professionals, and distinguished academics. Eighty percent of the experts have served in the U.S. government—including more than half in the Executive Branch, 32 percent in the military, and 21 percent in the intelligence community.

National Intelligence Estimate: Prospects for Iraq’s Stability but Political Reconciliation Elusive

National Intelligence Estimate: Prospects for Iraq’s Stability: Some Security Progress but Political Reconciliation Elusive

Source: Office of the Director of National Intelligence (via Think Progress)

Driven largely by the accelerating pace of tribal engagement and the increasing tempo of Coalition operations, developments in Iraq are unfolding more rapidly and with greater complexity today than when we completed our January NIE. Regional variations in security and political circumstances are great and becoming increasingly more distinct–for example, intra-Shia violence in southern Iraq is very different from patterns of violence elsewhere. The intelligence assessments contained in this NIE largely focus on only a short period of the Iraqi conflict–the last six months–and in circumscribed areas–primarily the central provinces, which contain the center of gravity for Iraq’s security prospects and in which we have a greater Coalition presence and therefore more information. The unfolding pace and scope of security and political realities in Iraq, combined with our necessarily limited focus of analysis, contain risks: our uncertainties are greater, and our future projections subject to greater chances of error. These issues, combined with the challenges of acquiring accurate data on trends in violence and continued gaps in our information about levels of violence and political trends in areas of Iraq without a substantial Coalition presence and where Intelligence Community collectors have difficulty operating, heighten our caution. Nonetheless, we stand by these judgments as our best collective assessment of security and political conditions in Iraq today and as likely to unfold during the next six to 12 months.

Iraq Trip Report

Iraq Trip Report

Source: Brookings Institution

From July 17-25 we travelled extensively in central, western and northern Iraq. The trip was sponsored by the Multi-National Force—Iraq (MNF-I) command and so afforded unparalleled access to U.S. and Iraqi military personnel. We spoke at length with the four principal American division commands in those sectors, as well as nearly half of the brigade commanders and their staffs, as well as several battalion and even company commanders. We also met with senior U.S. personnel from the Detainee Forces command, and from the training command known as MNSTCI, as well as a number of Iraqi police and army officers. Similarly, MNF-I saw to it that we were able to meet with key civilian personnel in a variety of PRTs/EPRTs, the U.S. Ambassador, the President’s Special Envoy, the CIA station, the US AID mission, and the United Nations Assistance Mission in Iraq. Both through our own contacts and those of the military, we also were able to meet with a number of the seniormost members of the current Iraqi government (including President Talabani, Vice President ‘Abd al-Mahdi, Foreign Minister Zebari, Deputy Prime Minister Salih, and National Security Adviser ar-Rubaie).

An Introduction to Theater Strategy and Regional Security

An Introduction to Theater Strategy and Regional Security

Source: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College

Theater strategy and theater security cooperation are two of the most important tools available in attaining national security. They offer an effective means for geographic Combatant Commanders to engage other countries, deter aggression, or resolve crises. However, there is little current, concise, and comprehensive guidance on how they are planned and implemented. This paper explains what theater strategy is, its basis, how it is formulated, and how it is executed with emphasis on theater security cooperation. The author illustrates the role in national affairs of theater strategy and security cooperation through examples from a case study leading up to and during Operation ENDURING FREEDOM in Afghanistan.

Terrorist Threats in the Horn of Africa: A Net Assessment

Terrorist Threats in the Horn of Africa: A Net Assessment

Source: National Security Outlook (American Enterprise Institute)

The struggle against Islamist extremism has been dubbed the “Long War” by America’s military leadership, but there is no agreed-upon model to forecast the development of this conflict. The challenge of assessing the Long War is exacerbated by the differences between the adversaries: the United States and its allies form the core of the international system, while the Salafist jihadists at the extreme of radical Islam comprise an irregular transnational movement that has adaptively spread throughout the world from its Middle East base. Comparing the structure, goals, strategy, and tactics of these fundamentally asymmetric forces is a chore to which our analytic tools developed during the Cold War do not lend themselves. This National Security Outlook examines whether the “net assessment” concept might serve as an appropriate framework for understanding the Long War and predicting its likely development.

Phased Transition: A Responsible Way Forward and Out of Iraq

Phased Transition: A Responsible Way Forward and Out of Iraq

Source: Project on Defense Alternatives

A Phased Transition plan is necessary for Iraq. The Bush administration should end its current “surge” of U.S. troops and launch a transition process that focuses U.S. forces on an advisory role and reduces our military presence in Iraq from approximately 160,000 today to about 60,000 by the end of 2008. At the same time that it implements the first phase, it should begin planning for subsequent phases and working to achieve a bipartisan consensus in the United States.

Is The United States Losing Turkey?

Is The United States Losing Turkey?

Source: Hudson Institute

The alliance between the United States and Turkey, which has endured since the 1947 Truman Doctrine and has contributed to the security of both countries, is now in serious trouble. What is worse, neither side is facing up to this reality, let alone taking serious remedial measures, nor even making concerted efforts to understand the new political currents within each other’s societies.

If this neglect continues, the price paid by both sides will be steep. It is becoming increasingly clear that Washington and Ankara see the world and define their interests in divergent ways. If allowed to continue, this trend could well undo the alliance. The good news is that there is still time to act, providing senior leaders on both sides move with dispatch. It is urgent that they do so, for despite the end of the Cold War, which provided a clear rationale for their alliance for four decades, Ankara and Washington still need each other, perhaps more so because they now face multiple and unfamiliar threats, not least those posed by terrorism.

The most important source of discord between Turkey and the United States is the war in Iraq. Ankara fears that Iraq will break up as a result of the war and that a separate Kurdish state will arise, creating even greater disorder and stoking separatist sentiment in Turkey’s southeast, and increasing paramilitary and terrorist attacks by the Kurdish separatist organization, the PKK. Washington, for its part, feels betrayed by the Turkish parliament’s rejection of its request to open a second front from Turkey’s territory against Saddam Hussein’s army in the run-up to the 2003 war. But more fundamentally, the Bush administration is preoccupied by the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and seems to have relegated Turkey to the back burner—or so it appears to many Turks.

Iraq - U.S. Policy Documents

Iraq - U.S. Policy Documents

Source: Military Education Research Library Network (MERLN)

A central repository of publicly available U.S. policy documents. Includes documents from the White House, Department of Defense, Department of State, Department of Homeland Security, Central Intelligence Agency, Other Policy Sources. Searchable.

Military: 2007 Key Strategic Issues List (KSIL)

U.S. Military: 2007 Key Strategic Issues List (KSIL)

Edited by Dr. Antulio J. Echevarria, II.
Source: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College

The Key Strategic Issues List gives researchers, whether military professionals or civilian scholars, a ready reference of those issues of particular interest to the Department of the Army and the Department of Defense. Its focus is strategic, rather than operational or tactical. Every year, the KSIL helps guide research efforts to the mutual benefit of the defense community and individual researchers.

U.S.-China Relations After Resolution of Taiwan’s Status

U.S.-China Relations After Resolution of Taiwan’s Status

Source: RAND Corporation

Although the question of Taiwan’s status is unlikely to be resolved soon, considering the various possible outcomes and how they might affect U.S.–China relations is useful. A total of ten distinct trajectories for the resolution of the cross-strait relationship can be identified, with greatly varying implications for U.S.-China relations. Unsurprisingly, the impact of peaceful outcomes, including continued peaceful irresolution, is both more predictable and generally better for relations between Washington and Beijing. If China uses force against Taiwan, however, subsequent U.S.–China relations could fall anywhere from close cooperation to hostile cold war. Both how the Taiwan issue is resolved and the nature of subsequent U.S.–China relations will largely be determined by the nature of China’s government: a democratic, or, at least, highly pragmatic Chinese government is more likely to achieve a peaceful resolution; a government still controlled by the Chinese Communist Party is less likely to do so. As China’s military capabilities grow, it will become increasingly difficult but also increasingly more important to prevent Beijing from using force to bring about unification.

National Intelligence Estimate: The Terrorist Threat to the US Homeland

National Intelligence Estimate: The Terrorist Threat to the US Homeland

Source: Office of the Director of National Intelligence

We judge the US Homeland will face a persistent and evolving terrorist threat over the next three years. The main threat comes from Islamic terrorist groups and cells, especially al- Qa’ida, driven by their undiminished intent to attack the Homeland and a continued effort by these terrorist groups to adapt and improve their capabilities.

We assess that greatly increased worldwide counterterrorism efforts over the past five years have constrained the ability of al-Qa’ida to attack the US Homeland again and have led terrorist groups to perceive the Homeland as a harder target to strike than on 9/11. These measures have helped disrupt known plots against the United States since 9/11.

* We are concerned, however, that this level of international cooperation may wane as 9/11 becomes a more distant memory and perceptions of the threat diverge.

Al-Qa’ida is and will remain the most serious terrorist threat to the Homeland, as its central leadership continues to plan high-impact plots, while pushing others in extremist Sunni communities to mimic its efforts and to supplement its capabilities. We assess the group has protected or regenerated key elements of its Homeland attack capability, including: a safehaven in the Pakistan Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), operational lieutenants, and its top leadership. Although we have discovered only a handful of individuals in the United States with ties to al-Qa’ida senior leadership since 9/11, we judge that al-Qa’ida will intensify its efforts to put operatives here.

* As a result, we judge that the United States currently is in a heightened threat environment.

The End of Democratic Solidarity in the Americas?

The End of Democratic Solidarity in the Americas?

Source: Latin American Outlook, American Enterprise Institute

Not long ago, the governments of the Americas recognized the value of working together to consolidate the historic, promising trend toward democracy. Now, with democracy being dismantled in several nations and being assailed by authoritarian Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez Frías, Latin American countries seem to have abandoned the fraternal ideal of inter-American solidarity. The United States and the Organization of American States (OAS) can both do more to salvage the regional commitment to democracy, but unless Latin American and Caribbean governments are willing to stand together to defend their principles, the end of democratic solidarity is in sight.

Released Today — Iraq: Initial Benchmark Assessment Report

Initial Benchmark Assessment Report

Source: The White House

This report to Congress is submitted consistent with Section 1314 of the U.S. Troop Readiness, Veterans’ Care, Katrina Recovery, and Iraq Accountability Appropriations Act, 2007 (Public Law 110-28) (the “Act”). It includes an assessment of how the sovereign Government of Iraq is performing in its efforts to achieve a series of specific benchmarks contained in the Act, as well as any adjustments to strategy that may be warranted in light of that performance. This is the first of two reports to be submitted consistent with the Act and has been prepared in consultation with the Secretaries of State and Defense; Commander, Multi-National Forces-Iraq; the United States Ambassador to Iraq; and the Commander of United States Central Command, consistent with Section 1314(b)(2)(B) of the Act. This assessment complements other reports and information about Iraq provided to the Congress and is not intended as a single source of all information about the combined efforts or the future strategy of the United States, its Coalition Partners, or Iraq.

Iraq Four Years after the U.S.-Led Invasion: Assessing the Crisis and Searching for a Way Forward

Iraq Four Years after the U.S.-Led Invasion: Assessing the Crisis and Searching for a Way Forward

Source: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

As the U.S. “surge” in Iraq enters its sixth month, a new Carnegie Policy Outlook reflects on the full history of the Iraq war and examines the viability of the current strategy.

The invasion and occupation of Iraq constituted the greatest nation-building challenge the United States has faced since World War II. As has become painfully clear, however, the realities of Iraq proved far more challenging than military planners had expected. Wars and sanctions only served to exacerbate stresses and tensions inherent under Saddam Hussein—there were no social forces to act as agents of change and no regional environment supportive of such change. The announcement of the surge in January 2007 revealed a sober recognition of how far U.S. strategy was removed from hard realities.

While this new U.S. strategy may have seemed plausible, it suffers from the same flawed assumptions and challenges that have plagued the entire war. The resolution of the Iraqi crisis can only come about through the construction of an inclusive, pluralistic, and federal polity with broad participation and strong political and security institutions. The Iraqi government must wean itself from U.S. military support, reinforce its own institutional and law-enforcement capacities, and take seriously the need for inclusive representational and decision-making institutions.

Opportunity ‘08: Homeland Security

Opportunity ‘08: Homeland Security

Source: The Brookings Institution

“Homeland security”—both the term and the policy—were effectively born amid the crisis of September 11, 2001. The policy started with a simple purpose: to prevent further terrorist attacks on American soil. It once made sense to take measures that responded to the circumstances of that attack and reassured a nervous public. But more than five years into the apparently endless war on terrorism, homeland security should evolve from a set of emergency policies into a permanent field of important government policy that, like any other, must justify its allocation of taxpayer funds through solid analysis.

America and the Use of Force: Sources of Legitimacy

America and the Use of Force: Sources of Legitimacy

Source: The Brookings Institution

Many American and foreign observers believe that the painful and so far unsuccessful intervention in Iraq will make the United States more reluctant to go to war in the future. Three powerful factors, however, suggest that, to the contrary, the United States may resort to military action more, not less, often in the future. The character of US foreign policy, manifested over two centuries, is that of a nation willing to use force with relative frequency on behalf of both principles and tangible interests and generally believing in the justness and appropriateness of military action in international affairs. The distribution of power in the world since the collapse of the Soviet Union—not very different today, despite the rise of powers such as China and India—invites military intervention by a dominant military power unchecked by the deterrent power of any nation or grouping of nations with roughly equal strength. Finally, the contemporary international system presents an array of circumstances in which the use of force will be seen as both necessary and proper. Indeed, the number of such challenges—be they to curb proliferation, counter terrorists, curtail gross human rights violations, or counter some other threat requiring military action—is likely to increase, not decrease, in the years ahead.

U.S. - Russian Relations: The Kennebunkport Agenda

U.S. - Russian Relations: The Kennebunkport Agenda

Source: Hudson Institute

From press release:

On the eve of the Bush-Putin summit meeting in Kennebunkport, four members of a Russian-American study group organized by the Hudson Institute said today that the present Russian regime is moving toward “a durable system of anti-Western authoritarian rule” and called on the U.S. to counteract this tendency by demonstrating strict fidelity to democratic principles.

Zeyno Baran, a senior fellow at Hudson, Evgeny Kiselyev, a well known Russian radio and television personality, Richard Pipes, a professor emeritus of Russian history at Harvard, and David Satter, a senior fellow at Hudson and research fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford said in the joint statement that “Russia is reverting to patterns of behavior characteristic of the Soviet Union.”

From Red to Gray: The “Third Transition” of Aging Populations in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union

From Red to Gray: The “Third Transition” of Aging Populations in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union

Source: World BankFrom press release:

By 2025, many countries in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union will have populations that are among the oldest in the world, posing a threat to the region’s recent economic success if pension and health care reforms are not adequately tackled and policies are not put in place to promote productivity growth.

Across the world, aging societies run the risks of severe economic consequences. Still, the Eastern Europe and former Soviet Union, comprising some 28 countries from Russia to Albania, is the only region in the world facing the combined challenges of rapid aging, relatively poor populations and an incomplete transition to mature market economies, according to a new World Bank report. For these countries, the problems are heightened by their need to simultaneously accelerate their economic transition and to urgently undertake longer-term reforms addressing demographic consequences….

A Diplomatic Offensive for Iraq

A Diplomatic Offensive for Iraq

Source: The Brookings Institution

U.S. policy on Iraq must address both diplomatic and military strategy together to realize any chance for sustainable peace. That was one of the central themes of the bipartisan Iraq Study Group report, yet the need for a diplomatic strategy to achieve a political settlement among warring Iraqis has largely been ignored in the debate on whether to “surge” or “withdraw” troops.

U.S. troops in Iraq should aim to provide the security needed to create a political environment to negotiate a peace agreement to end the Iraq War. Throughout recent history, civil wars characterized by insurgency and guerilla fighting have required political settlements to achieve peace. Moreover, weak and failed states have required external assistance to achieve effective self-governance. An urgent and energetic international political effort with focused mediation is required to complement military deployments to Iraq. Both need to advance together to create the basis for sustainable peace. This mediation should be an intensive and well-coordinated joint effort of the United States, the United Nations, and the European Union.

Russia’s Strategic Choices

Russia’s Strategic Choices

Source: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

After decades of economic and political turmoil, Russia today finds itself revived – its economy fueled by high energy prices, its territorial integrity secured, and its international role as a major world power restored. With new found self-confidence, Russia’s recent foreign policy has taken on a combative tone, exemplified by Russian President Vladmir Putin’s speech in Munich—and U.S.-Russian relations have plummeted to their lowest level since the end of the Soviet-era.

In this policy brief, Russia’s Strategic Choices, Dmitri Trenin, deputy director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, argues that Russia newfound status presents its leaders with a number of fundamental choices that the nation has yet to confront and raises key questions that it must resolve to form a cohesive and strategic foreign policy strategy.

Guidelines for Approaching Iran

Guidelines for Approaching Iran

Source: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

While the historic May 29 talks between the United States and Iran in Baghdad hinted at the possibility of renewed dialogue, the search for an effective foreign policy toward Iran has proven elusive for both U.S. and European administrations. The need for engagement with Iran is often cited as a major step in easing Middle East tensions and a matter of necessity to contend with Iran’s nuclear ambitions—yet remains a very difficult approach to implement.

In this Carnegie Policy Outlook, Guidelines for Approaching Iran, Carnegie Endowment Associate Karim Sadjadpour points to current realities in Iran and existing difficulties that should guide any attempts to engage Iran and influence its policies.

The SIPRI Arms Transfers Database Now Available Online at No Charge

The SIPRI Arms Transfers Database

To coincide with the launch of the 2007 SIPRI Yearbook, the SIPRI Arms Transfers Project has announced that the SIPRI Arms Transfers Database is now freely accessible online. The database is regularly updated and contains information on all international transfers of major conventional weapons since 1950. As such, the database represents a truly unique resource, containing information on transfers to or from over 200 countries and rebel groups, amounting to over 20,000 individual arms deals.

Source: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute

Energy Taxation: Principles and Interests

Energy Taxation: Principles and Interests

Source: Urban Institute

Energy policy is an important subject these days, as Americans become increasingly aware of the costs of what President Bush has called “our addiction to oil” and the environmental costs of growing world consumption of fossil fuels. Although some foreign oil comes from friendly and politically stable countries, the world price of oil depends heavily on output in potentially hostile, war-torn, and politically unstable regions. Policy changes can help us adjust over time to an economy that uses less oil and generates less greenhouse gas emissions. This article discusses some tax policies, including energy taxes and energy tax incentives, that can be crucial components of an energy policy that addresses global warming and energy security concerns.

Global Development Finance 2007: The Globalization of Corporate Finance in Developing Countries

Global Development Finance 2007: The Globalization of Corporate Finance in Developing Countries

Source: World Bank

Net private capital flows to developing countries reached a record $647 billion in 2006, although the rate of growth of these flows slowed from 34 percent in 2005 to 17 percent in 2006. Emerging Europe attracted an increasing share of the overall flows and equity financing grew much faster than debt, says Global Development Finance 2007. Despite commitments made by donors, aid flows were disappointing, and the shift from official to private sources of finance continued.

The annual World Bank report predicts that higher interest rates and emerging capacity constraints will slow the very fast growth of developing countries in the past few years, with global growth falling from 4 percent in 2006 to around 3.5 percent in 2009. This realignment could also temper some of the positive global financial conditions that have prevailed in many developing countries over the past four years.

Measuring Security and Stability in Iraq — June 2007

Measuring Security and Stability in Iraq — June 2007

Source: U.S. Department of Defense

Overall, it is too early to assess the impact of the new approach. For the period covered by this report, the additional forces to support the new approach were not fully in place, and those that were had only a limited time to conduct operations. In addition, new initiatives such as enhanced PRTs (Provincial Reconstruction Teams) and focused efforts to improve GoI (Government of Iraq) budget execution and rule of law remain in their initial stages. On the political front, reconciliation is a top priority. Economically, further provision of goods and services by the GoI that benefit the Iraqi population is required. Progress will depend on Iraqi follow-through on their commitments made as part of the new approach; the actions of insurgents, militia and terrorists to disrupt reconciliation will be a key challenge to the Iraqi government’s ability to fulfill its commitments.

Democratic Jihad ? Military intervention and democracy

Democratic Jihad ? Military intervention and democracy

Source: World Bank Policy Research Working Papers

Democracies rarely if ever fight one another, but they participate in wars as frequently as autocracies. They tend to win the wars in which they participate. Democracies frequently build large alliances in wartime, but not only with other democracies. From time to time democracies intervene militarily in ongoing conflicts. The democratic peace may contribute to a normative justification for such interventions, for the purpose of promoting democracy and eventually for the promotion of peace. This is reinforced by an emerging norm of humanitarian intervention. Democracies may have a motivation to intervene in non-democracies, even in the absence of ongoing conflict, for the purpose of regime change. The recent Iraq War may be interpreted in this perspective. A strong version of this type of foreign policy may be interpreted as a democratic crusade.

The paper examines the normative and theoretical foundations of democratic interventionism. An empirical investigation of interventions in the period 1960-96 indicates that democracies intervene quite frequently, but rarely against other democracies. In the short term, democratic intervention appears to be successfully promoting democratization, but the target states tend to end up among the unstable semi-democracies. The most widely publicized recent interventions are targeted on poor or resource-dependent countries in non-democratic neighborhoods. Previous research has found these characteristics to reduce the prospects for stable democracy. Thus, forced democratization is unpredictable with regard to achieving long-term democracy and potentially harmful with regard to securing peace. But short-term military successes may stimulate more interventions until the negative consequences become more visible.

Rethinking Insurgency

Rethinking Insurgency

Source: Institute for Strategic Studies, U.S. Army War College

The U.S. military and national security community lost interest in insurgency after the end of the Cold War when other defense issues such as multinational peacekeeping and transformation seemed more pressing. With the onset of the Global War on Terror in 2001 and the ensuing involvement of the U.S. military in counterinsurgency support in Iraq and Afghanistan, insurgency experienced renewed concern in both the defense and intelligence communities. The author argues that while exceptionally important, this relearning process focused on Cold War era nationalistic insurgencies rather than the complex conflicts which characterized the post-Cold War security environment. To be successful at counterinsurgency, he contends, the U.S. military and defense community must rethink insurgency, which has profound implications for American strategy and military doctrine.

China’s Economic Fluctuations and Their Implications for Its Rural Economy

China’s Economic Fluctuations and Their Implications for Its Rural Economy

Source: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

A new report from Carnegie Endowment Senior Associate Albert Keidel finds that China’s rapid growth over the past quarter century has not been export-led but rather is driven by domestic demand, even in recent years when China’s global trade surplus has rapidly expanded. The report also concludes that China ’s management of its economic fluctuations since the 1980s has systematically disadvantaged the rural economy.

The report, which analyzes both fast-growth and slow-growth phases of China ’s rapid expansion since 1978, shows that shifts in domestic demand, and not shifts in exports, explain growth patterns.

The Journal of South Asian Non-Proliferation

The Journal of South Asian Non-Proliferation is a new online compendium of non-proliferation related publications from The South Asian Strategic Stability Institute (SASSI). It is a periodic compilation of news, official statements, and expert analyses related to South Asian non-proliferation issues.

Global Peace Index and Sustainability

Global Peace Index and Sustainability

Source: Vision of Humanity/Economist Intelligence Unit/Centre for Peace and Conflict Studies

From introduction:

The Economist Intelligence Unit, in conjunction with an international team of academics and peace experts, has compiled an innovative new Global Peace Index (GPI), which ranks 120 nations according to their relative peacefulness. The Global Peace Index is composed of 24 indicators, ranging from a nation’s level of military expenditure to its relations with neighbouring countries and the level of respect for human rights. The index has been tested against a range of potential “drivers” or determinants of peace—including levels of democracy and transparency, education and material wellbeing. The team has used the latest available figures (mainly 2004-06) from a wide range of respected sources, including the International Institute of Strategic Studies, The World Bank, various UN offices and Peace Institutes and the Economist Intelligence Unit. The Global Peace Index is intended to contribute significantly to the public debate on peace.

New Grants to Deal With Explosives Remnants of War and Landmines

New Grants to Deal With Explosives Remnants of War and Landmines

Source: U.S. Department of State

The United States has launched another effort to strengthen peace and post-conflict recovery. The Office of Weapons Removal and Abatement in the U.S. Department of State’s Bureau of Political-Military Affairs has awarded a total of more than $2.2 million to twenty-three non-governmental organizations to clean up former battle areas – most of which are littered by landmines and explosive remnants of war left by other countries – teach mine risk education, assist mine survivors, and conduct related research. The U.S. is the global leader in efforts to save lives by confronting the dangers posed by persistent landmines and all explosive remnants of war, including unexploded cluster munitions.

These grants, described below, augment the Department’s projected FY 2007 budget of over $65.3 million for humanitarian mine action and small arms/light weapons abatement.

Adapting to Climate Change: What’s Needed in Poor Countries and Who Should Pay

Adapting to Climate Change: What’s Needed in Poor Countries and Who Should Pay

(PDF; 493 KB)

Source: Oxfam AmericaFrom press release:

Human-induced climate change is already causing harm to the world’s poorest people, who are the least responsible for emissions and least able to adapt to climatic shocks, according to a new report published today ahead of the G8 summit by international agency Oxfam. The agency called on G8 countries to urgently take action to keep global warming below 2° Celsius (3.6° Fahrenheit) and pledge to help poorest cope with the impacts.

“Poor countries should not have to pay for damage caused by the emissions of rich countries,” said Raymond C. Offenheiser, President of Oxfam America. “As world leaders head to the G8 summit in Germany, they must be prepared to cut their emissions and to start helping poor countries to cope with the high costs of adaptation.”

The report, “Adapting to Climate Change: What’s Needed in Poor Countries and Who Should Pay,” estimates that poor countries will need around $50 billion a year to adapt to the harmful effects of climate change, a conservative estimate that will rise sharply if emissions are not cut drastically.

Fighting on Two Fronts: Secular Parties in the Arab World

Fighting on Two Fronts: Secular Parties in the Arab World

Source: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Without strong secular parties, political competition in the Arab world could be reduced to a dangerous head-on confrontation between Islamist parties and the incumbent governments. Yet secular parties—a broad term referring to organizations that do not embrace a political platform inspired by religious ideals—are clearly facing a crisis in the Arab world as they struggle for influence, relevance, and in some cases, survival.

In a new Carnegie Paper, Fighting on Two Fronts: Secular Parties in the Arab World, Carnegie Endowment Senior Associates Marina Ottaway and Amr Hamzawy explore the uncertain future of secular parties across the Arab world by examining their role in Morocco, Egypt, Yemen, and Kuwait. The authors argue that secular parties need to reform their vision, message, and organization to be able to affect the political system in a meaningful way.

Central Asia’s Energy Risks

Central Asia’s Energy Risks

Source: International Crisis Group

Oil and gas are proving as much a burden as a benefit to Central Asia. The three oil and gas producers in the region – Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan – are showing signs of the “resource curse” under which energy-rich nations fail to thrive or develop distorted, unstable economies. Geography and their history in the Soviet Union have bound them to Russia, through which most of their energy exports must be transported. Moscow is proving to be an unreliable partner for foreign consumers as it has been willing to cut off pipelines to apply commercial or political pressure. Low investment, corruption and gross mismanagement in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan may mean that their supplies run low before they can diversify their links to markets or their economies. Central Asia is likely to see energy create instability within the region; the chances are low that it will be a factor in improving European energy security any time soon.

World Economic and Social Survey 2007: Development in an Ageing World

World Economic and Social Survey 2007: Development in an Ageing World

The World Economic and Social Survey 2007 analyses the challenges and opportunities associated with ageing populations and aims to facilitate discussions in furthering the Madrid International Plan of Action on Ageing, adopted by consensus by the Second World Assembly on Ageing on 12 April 2002. The Madrid Plan of Action focuses on three sets of priorities: older people and development; advancing health and well-being into old age; and enabling and supportive environments for older persons.

The Survey underscores the need to fully recognize and better harness the productive and social contributions to societies that older persons can make but are, in many instances, prevented from making. It also emphasizes what is among the most pressing of challenges: that arising from the prospect of a shrinking labour force that must support an increasingly larger older population. Moreover, changes in intergenerational relationships may affect the provision of care and income security for older persons, particularly in developing countries where family transfers often play a major role. Thus, societies must also cater for the particular needs of older populations in terms of the requisite health care, assistance in case of disabilities and appropriate living conditions.

Source: Economic and Social Council, UN

Evaluation Of Human Security: United Nations Development Programme Support To Conflict-Affected Countries

Evaluation Of Human Security: United Nations Development Programme Support To Conflict-Affected Countries

133 pages; PDF.

Nearly 33 million people around the world were rendered homeless last year due to violent conflicts. The many agencies of the UN system are actively engaged in supporting these communities to reclaim the right to live with dignity and security. Crisis prevention and recovery is a core practice area for UNDP, with activities in conflict-affected countries constituting nearly 40 percent of global expenditure in 2005. Given the significance of this work, the UNDP Executive Board requested the Evaluation Office to conduct an independent evaluation of UNDP assistance to conflict affected countries.

Source: United Nations Development Programme

International Energy Outlook 2007

International Energy Outlook 2007

The International Energy Outlook 2007 (IEO2007) presents an assessment by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the outlook for international energy markets through 2030. U.S. projections appearing in IEO2007 are consistent with those published in EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2007 (AEO2007), which was prepared using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS).

Source: Energy Information Administration

Global War on Terrorism: Reported Obligations for the Department of Defense

Global War on Terrorism: Reported Obligations for the Department of Defense

Since 2001, Congress has provided the Department of Defense (DOD) with hundreds of billions of dollars in supplemental and annual appropriations for military operations in support of the Global War on Terrorism (GWOT). DOD’s reported annual costs for GWOT have shown a steady increase from about $0.2 billion in fiscal year 2001 to about $98.4 billion in fiscal year 2006. So far in fiscal year 2007, Congress has provided DOD with $70 billion in annual appropriations for GWOT. To continue its GWOT operations, DOD has requested an additional $93.4 billion in supplemental appropriations for fiscal year 2007 and $141.7 billion in appropriations for fiscal year 2008. The United States’ commitments to GWOT will likely involve the continued investment of significant resources, requiring decision makers to consider difficult trade-offs as the nation faces an increasing long-range fiscal challenge.

Source: GAO

Accepting Realities in Iraq

Accepting Realities in Iraq

This new briefing paper by Chatham House assesses the political, security and economic prospects for Iraq in the coming year. The author, Gareth Stansfield, claims that there is not 'one' civil war, but many civil wars and insurgencies in the country and current realities have to be accepted if new strategies for solutions are to be found.

Energy Security in the UK

Energy Security in the UK

44 pages; PDF.

From the intro: The paper sets out developing energy policy in the UK and Europe, which is being driven by the need to secure energy supplies and deliver clean, affordable energy to combat climate change. It also considers the risks of dwindling reserves of oil, gas and coal which, environmental considerations notwithstanding, will continue to be burnt for many years.

Source: House of Commons Library, UK

Key Facts on Corporate Foundations

Key Facts on Corporate Foundations

7 pages; PDF.

Among the key findings:
*Corporate foundations accounted for 11% of all foundation giving, but that figure nearly doubles to more than 20% when combined with giving by corporate operating foundations.

* Close to three-fifths of corporate foundations surveyed expect to increase giving in 2007, surpassing the share that anticipated higher levels of giving last year.

* Among funding priorities, corporate foundations targeted a total of nearly half of their giving to education (25%) and public affairs/social benefit (22%), including support for community development, federated funds and other philanthropy, public affairs, and civil rights.


Source: Foundation Center

The Challenge of Economic Reform in the Arab World: Toward More Productive Economies

The Challenge of Economic Reform in the Arab World: Toward More Productive Economies
By Sufyan Alissa
Publisher: Carnegie Endowment
Carnegie Paper, May 2007


A new study by the Carnegie Endowment finds that previous attempts at economic reform have not alleviated the economic problems of Arab countries, failing to dismantle state-dominated economies with high restrictions on private investments. Arab countries represent only 4 percent of world trade and have the highest unemployment rate in the world at 12.2 percent. The per capita GDP in these nations has fallen in recent decades and public debt has hit a critical level in several countries.

In this Carnegie Paper from Carnegie’s Middle East Center, The Challenge of Economic Reform in the Arab World, Sufyan Alissa examines the major factors responsible for hindering meaningful economic reform in the Arab world. Governments and established elites have little incentive to create reforms that could threaten their economic and political interests. Furthermore, governments and institutions in the Arab world have limited capacity to plan, implement and manage reform programs, and have little agreement on what true reform would entail

Alissa argues that, in economic terms, there are two types of states in the Middle East and North Africa—those that are highly dependent on oil, and those that depend on foreign aid, international loans, and remittances from expatriate workers. Both have used these highly volatile revenue sources to temporarily alleviate economic pressures, preserve dominant elite privileges, and buy loyalty to the state—all at the cost of sustainable, long-term reform.
In order to achieve genuine reform, governments must move beyond economies dominated by the public sector and support economic models driven by the private sector as the main source of growth and income.

“A consensus is forming among international financial institutions, economics and aid practitioners that lack of progress in improving governance lies at the very heart of most of the challenges currently impeding economic transformation in the Arab world,” says Alissa.