U.S. Policy in Afghanistan: Basic Questions — Strategic Choices

U.S. Policy in Afghanistan: Basic Questions — Strategic Choices

Source: RAND Corporation

On October 29, 2009, the RAND Center for Middle East Public Policy convened a half-day symposium of experts — including Dr. Zbigniew Brzezinski, Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad, Ambassador James Dobbins, Senator Carl Levin, and others — and journalists to address assumptions and alternatives for U.S. policy in Afghanistan. In the first session, panelists spoke about counterinsurgency strategy. Among the topics they addressed were military troop levels needed to support a counterinsurgency strategy, the role of Afghan security forces, and potential costs of increased military operations.

The second session covered counterterrorism, including the degree to which the U.S. should consider Afghanistan a national security interest, the nature of military operations against the Taliban and al-Qaida, regional political stability, and military troop levels in the region. The final panel was on containment. Foreign policy experts spoke about strategic options and U.S. policy in Afghanistan. Among the issues they addressed were military disengagement, regional security and political stability, as well as pitfalls and challenges in any sustained military presence in the region. Each panel also answered questions from the audience

The Saudi Terror Problem on the Rise Since September 11

The Saudi Terror Problem on the Rise Since September 11

Source: Institute for Gulf Affairs

The Institute for Gulf Affairs issued a report today highlighting the Saudi Arabian regime’s continued support of terrorism despite the passing of eight years since September 11.
The report titled, “The Saudi Terror Problem on the Rise Since September 11,” concludes that the Saudi regime openly supports its citizens’ engagement in terrorism. The kingdom has claimed throughout the past eight years it has worked to weed out terrorism, but in reality they have supported, financed, and actively produced new recruits for Al-Qaeda and similar groups.
The Saudi government continues to be a key supporter of international terrorism. The government encourages men to contribute to terrorism in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, etc. The effects of the Saudi regime’s support are obvious in light of the number of Saudi fighters that are operating in these countries.

After eight years of international pressure on the Saudi government to eradicate terror, contrastingly the number of Saudis involved in terrorism has increased to its highest levels. The Saudi officials give speeches and fatwas encouraging Saudis to join and fund the insurgency in Iraq. They also allow Al-Qaeda recruiters and websites to function and recruit countless numbers of young Saudis.

Saudi Arabia remains the prime source of thousands of Al-Qaeda militants and tens of millions of dollars the organization uses to fund its activities. The Taliban has also been receiving its largest funds from Saudi Arabia. However, The United State government has neglected to change Saudi policies and programs that continue to produce waves of militants and suicide bombers. This failure has resulted in the deaths of thousands of people including American soldiers and civilians.

Withdrawing from Iraq: Alternative Schedules, Associated Risks, and Mitigating Strategies

Withdrawing from Iraq: Alternative Schedules, Associated Risks, and Mitigating Strategies

Source: RAND Corporation

Since 2007, security has improved dramatically in Iraq. The U.S. and Iraqi governments — and most Iraqis — want to see both the U.S. presence there reduced and the Iraqi government and security forces assuming a greater role in providing for public security. The challenge is to effect this drawdown while preserving security and stability in the country and in the region.

In response to tasking from the U.S. Congress, RAND researchers conducted an independent study to examine drawdown schedules, risks, and mitigating strategies. They identified logistical constraints on moving equipment out of the country, assessed trends in insurgent activity and the ability of Iraqi security forces to counter it, and examined the implications for the size of the residual U.S. force and for security in Iraq and the region. This report presents alternative drawdown schedules — one consistent with the Obama administration’s stated intentions and two others, one somewhat slower and another faster — that are responsive to these factors. It also recommends steps that the United States can take to alleviate anticipated constraints, overcome likely resistance, and reduce the potential risks associated with a drawdown.

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Source: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute

The Evolving Terrorist Threat to Southeast Asia: A Net Assessment

The Evolving Terrorist Threat to Southeast Asia: A Net Assessment

Source: RAND Corporation

Terrorism is not new to Southeast Asia. For much of the Cold War, the activities of a variety of domestic ethnonationalist and religious militant groups posed a significant challenge to the region’s internal stability. Since the 1990s, however, the residual challenge posed by substate militant extremism has risen in reaction to both the force of modernization pursued by many Southeast Asian governments and the political influence of radical Islam. Building on prior RAND research analyzing the underlying motives, drivers, and capabilities of the principal extremist groups that have resorted to terrorist violence in the Philippines, southern Thailand, and Indonesia, this study examined the historical roots of militancy in these countries to provide context for assessing the degree to which local agendas are either being subsumed within a broader ideological framework or shaped by other extremist movements. Moving beyond simple terrorism analysis, this research also examined national and international government responses to militant movements in the region, including counterterrorist initiatives, military and policing strategies, hearts-and-minds campaigns, and funding and support from international organizations and governments (including the United States). Finally, the study broke new ground in assessing Cambodia as a potential future terrorist operational and logistical hub in Southeast Asia.

Terrorism: Worldwide Incidents Tracking System (WITS)

Terrorism: Worldwide Incidents Tracking System (WITS)

The Worldwide Incidents Tracking System is the National Counterterrorism Center’s database of terrorist incidents.

Direct to Database

Source: National Counterterrorism Center

The 2009 Arab Public Opinion Poll: A View from the Middle East

The 2009 Arab Public Opinion Poll: A View from the Middle East

Source: Brookings Institution

On May 19, the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings hosted the release of a new 2009 University of Maryland/Zogby International public opinion poll which reveals long-term trends and surprising revelations about perceptions of the United States and President Barack Obama in the Middle East. Shibley Telhami, Saban Center nonresident senior fellow and principal investigator of the poll, and the Anwar Sadat professor for Peace and Development at the University of Maryland, presented his latest polling research and key findings. He was joined for a discussion of the poll results by James Zogby, founder and president of the Arab American Institute and Marc Lynch, associate professor at the Elliott School of International Affairs at The George Washington University.

Key Facts on Corporate Foundations (2009 Edition)

Key Facts on Corporate Foundations (2009 Edition)

Source: Foundation Center

Charitable giving by the nation’s nearly 2,500 corporate foundations remained virtually unchanged in 2008, according to the Foundation Center’s Key Facts on Corporate Foundations, an annual report on corporate foundation giving released today. Giving totaled an estimated $4.4 billion last year.

Corporate foundation giving will most certainly decline in 2009, with the banking and finance industries accounting for about one-quarter of corporate foundation support in recent years and corporate earnings down across the board. Slightly more than half (51 percent) of corporate foundations responding to the Center’s annual forecasting survey said they expect to reduce their giving this year, with three-quarters of these funders anticipating decreases of more than 10 percent.

National Counterterrorism Center: 2008 Report on Terrorism

National Counterterrorism Center: 2008 Report on Terrorism

Source: National Counterterrorism Center

Approximately 11,800 terrorist attacks against noncombatants occurred in various countries during 2008, resulting in over 54,000 deaths, injuries and kidnappings. Compared to 2007, attacks decreased by 2,700, or 18 percent, in 2008 while deaths due to terrorism decreased by 6,700, or 30 percent. As was the case last year, the largest number of reported terrorist attacks occurred in the Near East, but unlike previous years, South Asia had the greater number of fatalities. These two regions were also the locations for 75 percent of the 235 high-casualty attacks (those that killed 10 or more people) in 2008.

Piracy off the Horn of Africa - CRS Report

Piracy off the Horn of Africa

Source: Congressional Research Service (via Federation of American Scientists)

Recent attacks, including those on U.S.-flagged vessels, in the waters off the Horn of Africa have brought new U.S. and international attention to the long-standing problem of piracy in the region. The International Maritime Bureau recorded 111 attacks in the waters off the Horn of Africa in 2008, almost double the number in 2007. As of April 20, 2009, The International Maritime Bureau had counted 84 attacks since January: approximately 300 non-U.S. crew members on 18 hijacked vessels remain in Somali captivity. Previously concentrated in the Gulf of Aden between Yemen and the northern coast of Somalia and along the country’s eastern coastline, attacks on merchant ships are now taking place over an area of more than 1 million sq. miles in the Gulf and the west Indian Ocean, posing a significant threat to commercial shipping. Pirate attacks also have threatened relief shipments bound for East Africa and the countries of the Horn, amid a humanitarian crisis in the region that experts are calling the worst since 1984. The increase in pirate attacks off the Horn of Africa is directly linked to continuing insecurity and the absence of the rule of law in war-torn Somalia. The absence of a functioning government in Somalia remains the single greatest challenge to regional security and provides freedom of action for those engaged in piracy along the Somali coast. Some observers also have alleged that the absence of coastal security authorities in Somalia has allowed illegal international fishing and maritime dumping to occur in Somali waters, which in turn has undermined the economic prospects of some Somalis and may be providing economic or political motivation to some groups engaged in piracy. The apparent motive of many active Somali pirate groups is profit, and piracy has proven to be a lucrative activity for many thus far. Ransoms paid to Somali pirates and their supporters, estimated at over $30 million in 2008, may exacerbate ongoing fighting and further undermine security in the region.

From Within and Without: Sustainable Security in the Middle East and North Africa

From Within and Without: Sustainable Security in the Middle East and North Africa

Source: Oxford Research Group

As in much of the world, the current security discourse in the Middle East and North Africa is dominated by what might be called the ‘control paradigm’: an approach based on the premise that insecurity can be controlled through military force or balance of power politics and containment, thus maintaining the status quo. The most obvious global example of this approach has been the so-called ‘war on terror’, which essentially aims to ‘keep the lid’ on terrorism and insecurity, without addressing the root causes (an approach that has negatively impacted on the region). Such approaches to national, regional and international security are deeply flawed - particularly if not complemented by diplomatic efforts - and are distracting the world’s politicians from developing realistic and sustainable solutions to the non- traditional threats facing the world.

In contrast, this report explores an alternative approach, that of ’sustainable security’. The central premise of sustainable security is that you cannot successfully control all the consequences of insecurity, but must work to resolve the causes. In other words, ‘fighting the symptoms’ will not work, you must instead ‘cure the disease’. Such a framework must be based on an integrated analysis of security threats and a preventative approach to responses.

Annual Energy Outlook 2009

Annual Energy Outlook 2009
Source: Energy Information Administration

The Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (AEO2009) presents projections and analysis of US energy supply, demand, and prices through 2030. The projections are based on results from the Energy Information Administration’s National Energy Modeling System. The AEO2009 includes the reference case, additional cases examining energy markets, and complete documentation.

Prospects for U.S.-Russian Security Cooperation

Prospects for U.S.-Russian Security Cooperation

Source: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College

Russia, despite claims made for and against its importance, remains, by any objective standard, a key player in world affairs. Russia is an important barometer of trends in world politics, e.g., the course of democratization in the world. Furthermore, Russia, if it were so disposed, could be the abettor and/or supporter of a host of negative trends in the world today. Even so, if U.S. policymakers and analysts see Russia more as a spoiler than as a constructive partner (whether rightly or wrongly), the fact remains that during the Cold War the Soviet Union was an active supporter of threats to world order such as international terrorism, and carried on a global arms race with the West. We negotiated productively with it on issues like arms control and proliferation. Today, no matter how bad Russo-American or East-West relations may be, no such threats are present or immediately discernible on the horizon. But ultimately, given Russia’s power, standing, and nuclear capability, dialogue and cooperation will be resumed at some point in the future. Therefore, an analysis of the prospects for and conditions favoring such cooperation is an urgent and important task that cries out for clarification precisely because current U.S.-Russian relations are so difficult.

Military Power of the People’s Republic of China

Military Power of the People’s Republic of China

Source: U.S. Department of Defense

China’s rapid rise as a regional political and economic power with growing global influence has significant implications for the Asia-Pacific region and the world. The United States welcomes the rise of a stable, peaceful, and prosperous China, and encourages China to participate responsibly in world affairs by taking on a greater share of the burden for the stability, resilience, and growth of the international system. The United States has done much over the last 30 years to encourage and facilitate China’s national development and its integration into the international system. However, much uncertainty surrounds China’s future course, particularly regarding how its expanding military power might be used.

The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is pursuing comprehensive transformation from a mass army designed for protracted wars of attrition on its territory to one capable of fighting and winning short- duration, high-intensity conflicts along its periphery against high-tech adversaries – an approach that China refers to as preparing for “local wars under conditions of informatization.” The pace and scope of China’s military transformation have increased in recent years, fueled by acquisition of advanced foreign weapons, continued high rates of investment in its domestic defense and science and technology industries, and far-reaching organizational and doctrinal reforms of the armed forces.

China’s ability to sustain military power at a distance remains limited, but its armed forces continue to develop and field disruptive military technologies, including those for anti-access/area-denial, as well as for nuclear, space, and cyber warfare, that are changing regional military balances and that have implications beyond the Asia-Pacific region. The PLA’s modernization vis-à-vis Taiwan has continued over the past year, including its build- up of short-range missiles opposite the island. In the near-term, China’s armed forces are rapidly developing coercive capabilities for the purpose of deterring Taiwan’s pursuit of de jure independence.

These same capabilities could in the future be used to pressure Taiwan toward a settlement of the cross-Strait dispute on Beijing’s terms while simultaneously attempting to deter, delay, or deny any possible U.S. support for the island in case of conflict. This modernization and the threat to Taiwan continue despite significant reduction in cross-Strait tension over the last year since Taiwan elected a new president. The PLA is also developing longer range capabilities that have implications beyond Taiwan. Some of these capabilities have allowed it to contribute cooperatively to the international community’s responsibilities in areas such as peacekeeping, humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, and counter-piracy. However, some of these capabilities, as well as other, more disruptive ones, could allow China to project power to ensure access to resources or enforce claims to disputed territories.

Beijing publicly asserts that China’s military modernization is “purely defensive in nature,” and aimed solely at protecting China’s security and interests. Over the past several years, China has begun a new phase of military development by beginning to articulate roles and missions for the PLA that go beyond China’s immediate territorial interests, but has left unclear to the international community the purposes and objectives of the PLA’s evolving doctrine and capabilities. Moreover, China continues to promulgate incomplete defense expenditure figures and engage in actions that appear inconsistent with its declaratory policies. The limited transparency in China’s military and security affairs poses risks to stability by creating uncertainty and increasing the potential for misunderstanding and miscalculation. The United States continues to work with our allies and friends in the region to monitor these developments and adjust our policies accordingly.

U.S. Institute of Peace Report on “Mapping Peace Between Syria and Israel” Outlines Framework for a Possible Deal on the Golan Heights

U.S. Institute of Peace Report on “Mapping Peace Between Syria and Israel” Outlines Framework for a Possible Deal on the Golan Heights

Source: U.S. Institute of Peace

A new report by Frederic C. Hof commissioned by the United States Institute of Peace’s Center for Mediation and Conflict Resolution, provides groundbreaking ideas on facilitating a Syrian-Israel Peace.

“Mapping Peace Between Syria and Israel” comes out at a critical time in the Arab-Israeli peace process as a new U.S. administration is looking for ways to move the process forward despite the recent violence in Gaza. The report also comes out during a period of renewed interest in Syria when many delegations, including one co-sponsored by the United States of Peace, are going to Damascus.

In the report, Fred Hof, who directed the field operations of the Sharm El-Sheikh (Mitchell) Fact-Finding Committee in 2001, lays out a roadmap for how to resolve the thorny issues separating Syria and Israel over the Golan Heights plateau and small tracts in the Jordan River Valley. Hof’s study focuses on creative ways and means to reconcile Syria’s boundary demand with legitimate Israeli concerns. A key element is elaboration on the concept of a Jordan Valley-Golan Heights Environmental Preserve, which attracted attention during earlier peace talks.
The issue has been known to be highly complex but Hof describes his approach as “modest, minimalist, and relatively uncomplicated.” “There are already some two-dozen parks and reserves that have been established by Israel on land that would, in accordance with the boundary under discussion, be returned to Syria,” says Hof. “As a matter of sound environmental stewardship one might hope that Syria would maintain and even expand all of these facilities, which range from Susita Nature Reserve in the south to the Hermon Reserve in the north.

Saudi-Iranian Relations Since the Fall of Saddam

Saudi-Iranian Relations Since the Fall of Saddam

Source: RAND Corporation

The often tense relationship between Saudi Arabia and Iran has been at the center of many of the major political shifts that have occurred in the Middle East since the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003. This volume documents a study of how relations between the two powers have unfolded in the Persian Gulf, Iraq, Lebanon, and Palestine from 2003 through January 2009. Wehrey et al. detail the complex and multidimensional relationship between Saudi Arabia and Iran and its implications for regional stability and U.S. interests. In doing so, the authors challenge conventional thinking about Saudi-Iranian relations, arguing, for example, that Sunni-Shi’a distinctions are not the key driver in dealings between the two nations, that the two states have a tendency to engage on areas of common interest, and that the notion of a watertight bloc of Gulf Arab states opposing Iran is increasingly unrealistic. The study concludes with U.S. policy recommendations for leveraging the Saudi-Iranian relationship, particularly in the context of a U.S. drawdown in Iraq, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and the Iranian nuclear issue.

Budget of the United States Government Fiscal Year 2010

Budget of the United States Government Fiscal Year 2010
February 26th, 2009

Direct to Budget and Supporting Materials Organized by Department.

Source: Office of Management and Budget

New report highlights importance of water in the “energy equation”

New report highlights importance of water in the “energy equation”

Source: World Economic Forum

The World Economic Forum’s Energy Community today launched the Thirsty Energy – Water and Energy in the 21st Century report. The report explores the risks and opportunities inherent in the ancient relationship between energy and water, which has taken on a new urgency as competition for finite freshwater resources rises. Produced in partnership with Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA), the report includes perspectives from prominent experts and decision-makers.

Water is critical to energy production, yet the water/energy nexus is often overlooked. “The importance of bringing water into the energy equation now cannot be underestimated as we are heading for a more water-scarce future,” said Christoph Frei, Senior Director and Head of Energy Industry at the World Economic Forum. “Optimizing future energy choices is becoming a ‘trilemma’ as water implications need to be considered alongside energy security and climate change impacts,” he added.

The Speeches of Barack Obama

The Speeches of Barack Obama

Free searchable eBook of more than 200 transcripts of Barack Obama speeches spanning from 2002 to 2009 — including his election night speech and inaugural address. This eBook uniquely combines 200+ addresses in one database. Giving you the capability to keyword search, compare speeches,verify quotes, sort and search by date or location, and even create reports.

You can search online or download to use with a copy of askSam. If you don’t have a copy of askSam download the free viewer (version 7 is now available).

Global Health Should Be Key Component of U.S. Foreign Policy

Global Health Should Be Key Component of U.S. Foreign Policy

Source: Institute of Medicine

The U.S. should significantly intensify its commitment to global health in the next four years by increasing funding and placing greater importance on health when setting overall U.S. foreign policy, says a new report from the Institute of Medicine written to inform the incoming administration’s future policies. To achieve this level of commitment, a White House Interagency Committee on Global Health should be created early on in the new administration to coordinate U.S. global health activities. Improving health is the responsibility of the United States as a global leader, said the committee that wrote the report, and should be recognized as a goal with significant long-term diplomatic, economic, and security benefits for the U.S.

Iraq in the Obama Administration

Iraq in the Obama Administration
Source: United States Institute of Peace

President-elect Obama has stated his commitment to withdraw combat brigades from Iraq within 16 months, leaving a residual force of unspecified size for counterterrorism operations, training and equipping Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and protection of Americans. Judging from his statements during the campaign, it appears that the President-elect would like to leave Iraq’s internal problems to the Iraqis and treat Iraq as part of overall regional concerns rather than being his central focus. He aims to reduce America’s Iraq commitments and restore U.S. credibility, prestige and capacity to act worldwide.

Nonetheless, as the president-elect himself has pointed out, the U.S. should get out with more care than we got in. Vital U.S. interests are still at stake in Iraq and the region. U.S. withdrawal should not create a situation even more costly to American interests than the war so far has been. The Obama Administration will have an opportunity to establish with Iraq a relationship that serves U.S. interests in a country with which we will be involved for a long time to come.

Iran: Breaking the Nuclear Deadlock

Iran: Breaking the Nuclear Deadlock

Source: Chatham House

The report considers the ways in which the West can most effectively engage with Iran. It both analyses the current situation and makes a series of practical recommendations about next steps for policymakers in the US under the Obama administration, and in the UK and Europe.
The report argues that Iran’s economic and political weaknesses could provide the catalyst for a breakthrough in the nuclear dispute. It finds that Iran’s domestic politics, energy industry and regional power may not be strong enough for it to resist international demands for a serious negotiation over its nuclear programme and that, despite the triumphalist rhetoric of its leadership, the economy remains Iran’s Achilles’ heel.