U.S. - Russian Relations: The Kennebunkport Agenda
Source: Hudson Institute
From press release:
On the eve of the Bush-Putin summit meeting in Kennebunkport, four members of a Russian-American study group organized by the Hudson Institute said today that the present Russian regime is moving toward “a durable system of anti-Western authoritarian rule” and called on the U.S. to counteract this tendency by demonstrating strict fidelity to democratic principles.
Zeyno Baran, a senior fellow at Hudson, Evgeny Kiselyev, a well known Russian radio and television personality, Richard Pipes, a professor emeritus of Russian history at Harvard, and David Satter, a senior fellow at Hudson and research fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford said in the joint statement that “Russia is reverting to patterns of behavior characteristic of the Soviet Union.”
Friday, June 29, 2007
Tuesday, June 26, 2007
From Red to Gray: The “Third Transition” of Aging Populations in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union
From Red to Gray: The “Third Transition” of Aging Populations in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union
Source: World BankFrom press release:
By 2025, many countries in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union will have populations that are among the oldest in the world, posing a threat to the region’s recent economic success if pension and health care reforms are not adequately tackled and policies are not put in place to promote productivity growth.
Across the world, aging societies run the risks of severe economic consequences. Still, the Eastern Europe and former Soviet Union, comprising some 28 countries from Russia to Albania, is the only region in the world facing the combined challenges of rapid aging, relatively poor populations and an incomplete transition to mature market economies, according to a new World Bank report. For these countries, the problems are heightened by their need to simultaneously accelerate their economic transition and to urgently undertake longer-term reforms addressing demographic consequences….
Source: World BankFrom press release:
By 2025, many countries in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union will have populations that are among the oldest in the world, posing a threat to the region’s recent economic success if pension and health care reforms are not adequately tackled and policies are not put in place to promote productivity growth.
Across the world, aging societies run the risks of severe economic consequences. Still, the Eastern Europe and former Soviet Union, comprising some 28 countries from Russia to Albania, is the only region in the world facing the combined challenges of rapid aging, relatively poor populations and an incomplete transition to mature market economies, according to a new World Bank report. For these countries, the problems are heightened by their need to simultaneously accelerate their economic transition and to urgently undertake longer-term reforms addressing demographic consequences….
Monday, June 25, 2007
A Diplomatic Offensive for Iraq
A Diplomatic Offensive for Iraq
Source: The Brookings Institution
U.S. policy on Iraq must address both diplomatic and military strategy together to realize any chance for sustainable peace. That was one of the central themes of the bipartisan Iraq Study Group report, yet the need for a diplomatic strategy to achieve a political settlement among warring Iraqis has largely been ignored in the debate on whether to “surge” or “withdraw” troops.
U.S. troops in Iraq should aim to provide the security needed to create a political environment to negotiate a peace agreement to end the Iraq War. Throughout recent history, civil wars characterized by insurgency and guerilla fighting have required political settlements to achieve peace. Moreover, weak and failed states have required external assistance to achieve effective self-governance. An urgent and energetic international political effort with focused mediation is required to complement military deployments to Iraq. Both need to advance together to create the basis for sustainable peace. This mediation should be an intensive and well-coordinated joint effort of the United States, the United Nations, and the European Union.
Source: The Brookings Institution
U.S. policy on Iraq must address both diplomatic and military strategy together to realize any chance for sustainable peace. That was one of the central themes of the bipartisan Iraq Study Group report, yet the need for a diplomatic strategy to achieve a political settlement among warring Iraqis has largely been ignored in the debate on whether to “surge” or “withdraw” troops.
U.S. troops in Iraq should aim to provide the security needed to create a political environment to negotiate a peace agreement to end the Iraq War. Throughout recent history, civil wars characterized by insurgency and guerilla fighting have required political settlements to achieve peace. Moreover, weak and failed states have required external assistance to achieve effective self-governance. An urgent and energetic international political effort with focused mediation is required to complement military deployments to Iraq. Both need to advance together to create the basis for sustainable peace. This mediation should be an intensive and well-coordinated joint effort of the United States, the United Nations, and the European Union.
Russia’s Strategic Choices
Russia’s Strategic Choices
Source: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
After decades of economic and political turmoil, Russia today finds itself revived – its economy fueled by high energy prices, its territorial integrity secured, and its international role as a major world power restored. With new found self-confidence, Russia’s recent foreign policy has taken on a combative tone, exemplified by Russian President Vladmir Putin’s speech in Munich—and U.S.-Russian relations have plummeted to their lowest level since the end of the Soviet-era.
In this policy brief, Russia’s Strategic Choices, Dmitri Trenin, deputy director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, argues that Russia newfound status presents its leaders with a number of fundamental choices that the nation has yet to confront and raises key questions that it must resolve to form a cohesive and strategic foreign policy strategy.
Source: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
After decades of economic and political turmoil, Russia today finds itself revived – its economy fueled by high energy prices, its territorial integrity secured, and its international role as a major world power restored. With new found self-confidence, Russia’s recent foreign policy has taken on a combative tone, exemplified by Russian President Vladmir Putin’s speech in Munich—and U.S.-Russian relations have plummeted to their lowest level since the end of the Soviet-era.
In this policy brief, Russia’s Strategic Choices, Dmitri Trenin, deputy director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, argues that Russia newfound status presents its leaders with a number of fundamental choices that the nation has yet to confront and raises key questions that it must resolve to form a cohesive and strategic foreign policy strategy.
Thursday, June 21, 2007
Guidelines for Approaching Iran
Guidelines for Approaching Iran
Source: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
While the historic May 29 talks between the United States and Iran in Baghdad hinted at the possibility of renewed dialogue, the search for an effective foreign policy toward Iran has proven elusive for both U.S. and European administrations. The need for engagement with Iran is often cited as a major step in easing Middle East tensions and a matter of necessity to contend with Iran’s nuclear ambitions—yet remains a very difficult approach to implement.
In this Carnegie Policy Outlook, Guidelines for Approaching Iran, Carnegie Endowment Associate Karim Sadjadpour points to current realities in Iran and existing difficulties that should guide any attempts to engage Iran and influence its policies.
Source: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
While the historic May 29 talks between the United States and Iran in Baghdad hinted at the possibility of renewed dialogue, the search for an effective foreign policy toward Iran has proven elusive for both U.S. and European administrations. The need for engagement with Iran is often cited as a major step in easing Middle East tensions and a matter of necessity to contend with Iran’s nuclear ambitions—yet remains a very difficult approach to implement.
In this Carnegie Policy Outlook, Guidelines for Approaching Iran, Carnegie Endowment Associate Karim Sadjadpour points to current realities in Iran and existing difficulties that should guide any attempts to engage Iran and influence its policies.
Monday, June 18, 2007
The SIPRI Arms Transfers Database Now Available Online at No Charge
The SIPRI Arms Transfers Database
To coincide with the launch of the 2007 SIPRI Yearbook, the SIPRI Arms Transfers Project has announced that the SIPRI Arms Transfers Database is now freely accessible online. The database is regularly updated and contains information on all international transfers of major conventional weapons since 1950. As such, the database represents a truly unique resource, containing information on transfers to or from over 200 countries and rebel groups, amounting to over 20,000 individual arms deals.
Source: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
To coincide with the launch of the 2007 SIPRI Yearbook, the SIPRI Arms Transfers Project has announced that the SIPRI Arms Transfers Database is now freely accessible online. The database is regularly updated and contains information on all international transfers of major conventional weapons since 1950. As such, the database represents a truly unique resource, containing information on transfers to or from over 200 countries and rebel groups, amounting to over 20,000 individual arms deals.
Source: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Energy Taxation: Principles and Interests
Energy Taxation: Principles and Interests
Source: Urban Institute
Energy policy is an important subject these days, as Americans become increasingly aware of the costs of what President Bush has called “our addiction to oil” and the environmental costs of growing world consumption of fossil fuels. Although some foreign oil comes from friendly and politically stable countries, the world price of oil depends heavily on output in potentially hostile, war-torn, and politically unstable regions. Policy changes can help us adjust over time to an economy that uses less oil and generates less greenhouse gas emissions. This article discusses some tax policies, including energy taxes and energy tax incentives, that can be crucial components of an energy policy that addresses global warming and energy security concerns.
Source: Urban Institute
Energy policy is an important subject these days, as Americans become increasingly aware of the costs of what President Bush has called “our addiction to oil” and the environmental costs of growing world consumption of fossil fuels. Although some foreign oil comes from friendly and politically stable countries, the world price of oil depends heavily on output in potentially hostile, war-torn, and politically unstable regions. Policy changes can help us adjust over time to an economy that uses less oil and generates less greenhouse gas emissions. This article discusses some tax policies, including energy taxes and energy tax incentives, that can be crucial components of an energy policy that addresses global warming and energy security concerns.
Global Development Finance 2007: The Globalization of Corporate Finance in Developing Countries
Global Development Finance 2007: The Globalization of Corporate Finance in Developing Countries
Source: World Bank
Net private capital flows to developing countries reached a record $647 billion in 2006, although the rate of growth of these flows slowed from 34 percent in 2005 to 17 percent in 2006. Emerging Europe attracted an increasing share of the overall flows and equity financing grew much faster than debt, says Global Development Finance 2007. Despite commitments made by donors, aid flows were disappointing, and the shift from official to private sources of finance continued.
The annual World Bank report predicts that higher interest rates and emerging capacity constraints will slow the very fast growth of developing countries in the past few years, with global growth falling from 4 percent in 2006 to around 3.5 percent in 2009. This realignment could also temper some of the positive global financial conditions that have prevailed in many developing countries over the past four years.
Source: World Bank
Net private capital flows to developing countries reached a record $647 billion in 2006, although the rate of growth of these flows slowed from 34 percent in 2005 to 17 percent in 2006. Emerging Europe attracted an increasing share of the overall flows and equity financing grew much faster than debt, says Global Development Finance 2007. Despite commitments made by donors, aid flows were disappointing, and the shift from official to private sources of finance continued.
The annual World Bank report predicts that higher interest rates and emerging capacity constraints will slow the very fast growth of developing countries in the past few years, with global growth falling from 4 percent in 2006 to around 3.5 percent in 2009. This realignment could also temper some of the positive global financial conditions that have prevailed in many developing countries over the past four years.
Friday, June 15, 2007
Measuring Security and Stability in Iraq — June 2007
Measuring Security and Stability in Iraq — June 2007
Source: U.S. Department of Defense
Overall, it is too early to assess the impact of the new approach. For the period covered by this report, the additional forces to support the new approach were not fully in place, and those that were had only a limited time to conduct operations. In addition, new initiatives such as enhanced PRTs (Provincial Reconstruction Teams) and focused efforts to improve GoI (Government of Iraq) budget execution and rule of law remain in their initial stages. On the political front, reconciliation is a top priority. Economically, further provision of goods and services by the GoI that benefit the Iraqi population is required. Progress will depend on Iraqi follow-through on their commitments made as part of the new approach; the actions of insurgents, militia and terrorists to disrupt reconciliation will be a key challenge to the Iraqi government’s ability to fulfill its commitments.
Source: U.S. Department of Defense
Overall, it is too early to assess the impact of the new approach. For the period covered by this report, the additional forces to support the new approach were not fully in place, and those that were had only a limited time to conduct operations. In addition, new initiatives such as enhanced PRTs (Provincial Reconstruction Teams) and focused efforts to improve GoI (Government of Iraq) budget execution and rule of law remain in their initial stages. On the political front, reconciliation is a top priority. Economically, further provision of goods and services by the GoI that benefit the Iraqi population is required. Progress will depend on Iraqi follow-through on their commitments made as part of the new approach; the actions of insurgents, militia and terrorists to disrupt reconciliation will be a key challenge to the Iraqi government’s ability to fulfill its commitments.
Friday, June 8, 2007
Democratic Jihad ? Military intervention and democracy
Democratic Jihad ? Military intervention and democracy
Source: World Bank Policy Research Working Papers
Democracies rarely if ever fight one another, but they participate in wars as frequently as autocracies. They tend to win the wars in which they participate. Democracies frequently build large alliances in wartime, but not only with other democracies. From time to time democracies intervene militarily in ongoing conflicts. The democratic peace may contribute to a normative justification for such interventions, for the purpose of promoting democracy and eventually for the promotion of peace. This is reinforced by an emerging norm of humanitarian intervention. Democracies may have a motivation to intervene in non-democracies, even in the absence of ongoing conflict, for the purpose of regime change. The recent Iraq War may be interpreted in this perspective. A strong version of this type of foreign policy may be interpreted as a democratic crusade.
The paper examines the normative and theoretical foundations of democratic interventionism. An empirical investigation of interventions in the period 1960-96 indicates that democracies intervene quite frequently, but rarely against other democracies. In the short term, democratic intervention appears to be successfully promoting democratization, but the target states tend to end up among the unstable semi-democracies. The most widely publicized recent interventions are targeted on poor or resource-dependent countries in non-democratic neighborhoods. Previous research has found these characteristics to reduce the prospects for stable democracy. Thus, forced democratization is unpredictable with regard to achieving long-term democracy and potentially harmful with regard to securing peace. But short-term military successes may stimulate more interventions until the negative consequences become more visible.
Source: World Bank Policy Research Working Papers
Democracies rarely if ever fight one another, but they participate in wars as frequently as autocracies. They tend to win the wars in which they participate. Democracies frequently build large alliances in wartime, but not only with other democracies. From time to time democracies intervene militarily in ongoing conflicts. The democratic peace may contribute to a normative justification for such interventions, for the purpose of promoting democracy and eventually for the promotion of peace. This is reinforced by an emerging norm of humanitarian intervention. Democracies may have a motivation to intervene in non-democracies, even in the absence of ongoing conflict, for the purpose of regime change. The recent Iraq War may be interpreted in this perspective. A strong version of this type of foreign policy may be interpreted as a democratic crusade.
The paper examines the normative and theoretical foundations of democratic interventionism. An empirical investigation of interventions in the period 1960-96 indicates that democracies intervene quite frequently, but rarely against other democracies. In the short term, democratic intervention appears to be successfully promoting democratization, but the target states tend to end up among the unstable semi-democracies. The most widely publicized recent interventions are targeted on poor or resource-dependent countries in non-democratic neighborhoods. Previous research has found these characteristics to reduce the prospects for stable democracy. Thus, forced democratization is unpredictable with regard to achieving long-term democracy and potentially harmful with regard to securing peace. But short-term military successes may stimulate more interventions until the negative consequences become more visible.
Wednesday, June 6, 2007
Rethinking Insurgency
Rethinking Insurgency
Source: Institute for Strategic Studies, U.S. Army War College
The U.S. military and national security community lost interest in insurgency after the end of the Cold War when other defense issues such as multinational peacekeeping and transformation seemed more pressing. With the onset of the Global War on Terror in 2001 and the ensuing involvement of the U.S. military in counterinsurgency support in Iraq and Afghanistan, insurgency experienced renewed concern in both the defense and intelligence communities. The author argues that while exceptionally important, this relearning process focused on Cold War era nationalistic insurgencies rather than the complex conflicts which characterized the post-Cold War security environment. To be successful at counterinsurgency, he contends, the U.S. military and defense community must rethink insurgency, which has profound implications for American strategy and military doctrine.
Source: Institute for Strategic Studies, U.S. Army War College
The U.S. military and national security community lost interest in insurgency after the end of the Cold War when other defense issues such as multinational peacekeeping and transformation seemed more pressing. With the onset of the Global War on Terror in 2001 and the ensuing involvement of the U.S. military in counterinsurgency support in Iraq and Afghanistan, insurgency experienced renewed concern in both the defense and intelligence communities. The author argues that while exceptionally important, this relearning process focused on Cold War era nationalistic insurgencies rather than the complex conflicts which characterized the post-Cold War security environment. To be successful at counterinsurgency, he contends, the U.S. military and defense community must rethink insurgency, which has profound implications for American strategy and military doctrine.
Friday, June 1, 2007
China’s Economic Fluctuations and Their Implications for Its Rural Economy
China’s Economic Fluctuations and Their Implications for Its Rural Economy
Source: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
A new report from Carnegie Endowment Senior Associate Albert Keidel finds that China’s rapid growth over the past quarter century has not been export-led but rather is driven by domestic demand, even in recent years when China’s global trade surplus has rapidly expanded. The report also concludes that China ’s management of its economic fluctuations since the 1980s has systematically disadvantaged the rural economy.
The report, which analyzes both fast-growth and slow-growth phases of China ’s rapid expansion since 1978, shows that shifts in domestic demand, and not shifts in exports, explain growth patterns.
Source: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
A new report from Carnegie Endowment Senior Associate Albert Keidel finds that China’s rapid growth over the past quarter century has not been export-led but rather is driven by domestic demand, even in recent years when China’s global trade surplus has rapidly expanded. The report also concludes that China ’s management of its economic fluctuations since the 1980s has systematically disadvantaged the rural economy.
The report, which analyzes both fast-growth and slow-growth phases of China ’s rapid expansion since 1978, shows that shifts in domestic demand, and not shifts in exports, explain growth patterns.
The Journal of South Asian Non-Proliferation
The Journal of South Asian Non-Proliferation is a new online compendium of non-proliferation related publications from The South Asian Strategic Stability Institute (SASSI). It is a periodic compilation of news, official statements, and expert analyses related to South Asian non-proliferation issues.
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