Deradicalizing Islamist Extremists

Deradicalizing Islamist Extremists

Source: RAND Corporation

Considerable effort has been devoted to understanding the process of violent Islamist radicalization, but far less research has explored the equally important process of deradicalization, or how individuals or groups abandon extremist groups and ideologies. Proactive measures to prevent vulnerable individuals from radicalizing and to rehabilitate those who have already embraced extremism have been implemented, to varying degrees, in several Middle Eastern, Southeast Asian, and European countries. A key question is whether the objective of these programs should be disengagement (a change in behavior) or deradicalization (a change in beliefs) of militants. Furthermore, a unique challenge posed by militant Islamist groups is that their ideology is rooted in a major world religion. An examination of deradicalization and counter-radicalization programs in the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Europe assessed the strengths and weaknesses of each program, finding that the best-designed programs leverage local cultural patterns to achieve their objectives. Such programs cannot simply be transplanted from one country to another. They need to develop organically in a specific country and culture.

Russia's Prospects in Asia

Russia's Prospects in Asia

Source: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College

These three chapters originated in an SSI conference in January 2010 and go to the heart of a question of vital significance for both Asia and Russia, namely what are Russia’s prospects in Asia. The three chapters outline the challenges Russia faces in Asia, the nature of the dynamic and complex Asian security environment, and the extent to which Russia is or is not meeting those challenges.

Defense Budgets and American Power

Defense Budgets and American Power

Source: Brookings Institution

In the late 1980s, as U.S. GDP growth slowed, budget deficits remained stubbornly high, and other nations’ economies outperformed that of the United States, arguments that “the Cold War is over—and Japan and Germany won” were heard frequently. Since that time, however, these U.S. allies have encountered their own challenges—Germany in reintegrating its eastern half and then helping establish the viability (and solvency) of the European Union (EU) and Euro systems; and Japan in dealing with a protracted deflating of its earlier financial bubble, combined with demographic challenges that leave its future economic prospects uncertain, at best.

Today, we are witnessing a period of even greater American economic travails, with much larger fiscal deficits. These are coupled with deep concern that less friendly powers—China in particular and perhaps Russia and others—may be poised to benefit from the relative decline of the United States specifically and the West in general. Is this assessment accurate? What do these shifting economic realities bode for the future of American power and ultimately the security of this country and its allies? Most of all, in light of these changes, to what extent can the United States mitigate the downsides of any hegemonic realignment of global power by more responsible fiscal policy? Put most sharply for the purposes of this essay, to what extent should the United States, as part of a broader strategy to reduce its deficits and strengthen its future economic prospects, accept some defense budget cuts now to preserve and enhance its power in the future?

Global Governance 2025: At a Critical Juncture (PDF)

Global Governance 2025: At a Critical Juncture (PDF)

Source: Office of the Director of National Intelligence (National Intelligence Council)

The United States’ National Intelligence Council (NIC) and the European Union’s Institute for Security Studies (EUISS) have joined forces to produce this assessment of the long-term prospects for global governance frameworks.

New USIP Primer Sheds Light on Iran

New USIP Primer Sheds Light on Iran

Source: U.S. Institute of Peace

On October 18 the United States Institute of Peace Press will release “The Iran Primer: Power, Politics, and U.S. Policy,” an online resource that provides a comprehensive but concise overview of Iran’s politics, economy, military, foreign policy and nuclear program. A print version will be available December 1.

Edited by Robin Wright, this compendium provides top-level briefings by 50 seasoned experts on Iran (both Iranian and Western authors) from some twenty foreign policy think tanks, eight universities, and six U.S. administrations. The authors present a wide range of views, offering factual information for ready reference, thoughtful analysis and context. Since Iran’s 1979 revolution, the West has struggled to understand what drives the Islamic Republic and how to deal with it. The challenge now looms even larger in the face of Iran’s controversial nuclear program, the disputed 2009 election, growing human rights violations and angry rhetoric.

Deloitte's Energy Predictions 2011 report focuses on sustainability in challenging conditions

Deloitte's Energy Predictions 2011 report focuses on sustainability in challenging conditions

Source: Deloitte

Deloitte’s Global Energy & Resources Group today published its Energy Predictions 2011 report, the second year it has published its predictions for the year ahead. The report is based on in-depth interviews with clients, industry analysts, and senior energy practitioners from Deloitte member firms around the world.

Even as the global economic downturn begins to ease, the energy sector is still likely to experience challenging conditions entering 2011. Serving as a global and unified measure of economic recovery, the price of oil and the strength and sustainability of the recovery will impact the ways in which all forms of energy are produced and consumed.

“Energy plays a pivotal role in driving the global economy,” says Peter Bommel, Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited Global Energy & Resources Industry Leader. “Anticipating the course of the energy and resources sector over the next twelve months is not easy, but Deloitte’s Energy Predictions Report aims to stimulate debate, inform of possible industry directions, and help identify opportunities and potential courses of action.”

Foreign Fighters: Trends, Trajectories & Conflict Zones

Foreign Fighters: Trends, Trajectories & Conflict Zones

Source: Homeland Security Policy Institute, George Washington University

The report is a timely primer on an emerging threat to Western states, dramatically evidenced in the recent news of an alleged plot by foreign fighters to stage a number of coordinated "Mumbai-style" attacks in Europe and possibly the United States.

The joint report of HSPI and SNDC surveys the sources, destinations and impact of Western jihadi foreign fighters. It also highlights key bridge figures who act as catalysts for radicalization and recruitment. The authors identify key vulnerabilities in the foreign fighter network, arguing that more must be done to exploit the security challenges faced by global jihadists.

States Of Conflict: An Update on Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan

States Of Conflict: An Update on Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan

Source: Brookings Institution

It has been a tough summer on America’s battlefields and those of its key allies, what with political wrangling in Baghdad, violence in Afghanistan and floods in Pakistan. President Obama received a fair dose of criticism for his Aug. 31 Oval Office speech marking the end of combat operations in Iraq, but under the circumstances it was practically impossible to convey a truly uplifting message.

Washington's Think Tanks: Factories to Call Our Own

Washington's Think Tanks: Factories to Call Our Own

Source: Washingtonian Magazine

America has been defined by its great cities and their signature industries. Pittsburgh became the city of steel during the industrial age. During the first half of the 20th century, Detroit became the city of automobiles. Los Angeles led the rise of film and television. More recently, California’s Silicon Valley spearheaded the technology boom, and New York is synonymous with Wall Street.Washington has always been different. It has never had much of a manufacturing base, and since Georgetown ceased to be an active port in the late 18th century, it hasn’t exported many products. In fact, Washington “makes” very little. Yet there is one industry that Washington can claim as its own: the ideas industry.

Annual Report to Congress — Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China – 2010

Annual Report to Congress — Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China – 2010 (PDF)

Source: U.S. Department of Defense

Over the past 30 years, China has made great progress in its pursuit of economic growth and development, which has allowed China to achieve higher living standards for the Chinese people and has increased China’s international profile. These economic achievements, combined with progress in science and technology, have also enabled China to embark on a comprehensive transformation of its military. The pace and scope of China’s military modernization have increased over the past decade, enabling China’s armed forces to develop capabilities to contribute to the delivery of international public goods, as well as increase China’s options for using military force to gain diplomatic advantage or resolve disputes in its favor.

Rising Powers and Domestic Attitudes on Hard Power

Rising Powers and Domestic Attitudes on Hard Power (PDF)

Source: Sigur Center for Asian Studies, Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University

Examining domestic foreign policy debates within rising powers provides insights into how these countries will behave as they rise. Five important rising powers in the critical Asian and Eurasian regions today are China, Japan, India, Iran and Russia. An international research team under the direction of the Sigur Center for Asian Studies at the Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University, is in the process of analyzing the foreign policy debates and schools of thought within these countries. This research is part of the Sigur Center’s project on “Worldviews of Aspiring Powers” sponsored by the Carnegie Corporation, and led by Sigur faculty members Henry R. Nau and Deepa Ollapally.

This Policy Brief draws from the presentations of the research team at a project conference held in Beijing, China in May 2010. It examines the attitude of the five rising powers toward hard power, specifically economic power and military power.

Counterinsurgency in Pakistan

Counterinsurgency in Pakistan

Source: RAND Corporation

Since 2001, Pakistan has undertaken a number of operations against militant groups, including al Qa'ida, that directly affect U.S. national security. Despite some successes, militant groups continue to present a significant threat to Pakistan, the United States, and a range of other countries. Numerous militant networks — including al Qa'ida and other foreign fighters — exist in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas and North West Frontier Province. Pakistan will not be able to deal with the militant threat over the long run unless it does a more effective job of addressing the root causes of the crisis and makes security of the civilian population, rather than destroying the enemy, its top counterinsurgency priority. In addition, Pakistan needs to abandon militancy as a tool of its foreign and domestic policy; it sends a confusing message internally and has a large potential to backfire

United States Institute of Peace Releases Review of Quadrennial Defense Report

United States Institute of Peace Releases Review of Quadrennial Defense Report

Source: United States Institute of Peace

On Thursday, July 29, the co-chairs of a select, bipartisan panel testified that their study of the Defense Department’s 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) found that without needed reform the All-Volunteer Force may be unsustainable and that the nation needs a new national security strategic planning process that better incorporates civilian departments and agencies. Former National Security Adviser Stephen J. Hadley and former Secretary of Defense William J. Perry met with the House Armed Services Committee about their now-public report, “The QDR in Perspective: Meeting America’s National Security Needs in the 21st Century.”

In their testimony, they summed up the panel’s warning that:

» “The aging of the inventories and equipment used by the services, the decline in the size of the Navy, escalating personnel entitlements, increased overhead and procurement costs, and the growing stress on the force means that a train wreck is coming in the areas of personnel, acquisition, and force structure.”
» “In addition, our nation needs to build greater civil operational capacity to deploy civilians alongside our military and to partner with international bodies, the private sector, and nongovernmental organizations in dealing with failed and failing states.”

Uncertainties in the North Korean Nuclear Threat

Uncertainties in the North Korean Nuclear Threat

Source: RAND Corporation

North Korea has been very successful in denying the United States and others information about its nuclear weapon program. The result is a high degree of uncertainty about the size and character of the North Korean nuclear weapon threat, how it might be used, and what impact it might have. This briefing addresses those uncertainties. Estimates of the number and nature of North Korean nuclear weapons depend heavily on how much external help the program has received; there is some evidence that help has included the provision of fissile material and assistance in the design of nuclear weapons, including miniaturization for ballistic missiles. North Korea uses its nuclear weapons actively in peacetime for deterrence and to obtain leverage. It could use them heavily in a war. If its force is as large as the uncertainties suggest it might be, North Korea could establish its nuclear weapon capabilities and intent to use them from early on in a war. Like other countries that have developed small nuclear forces, North Korea could threaten adversary cities (mainly in Japan and the Republic of Korea) to control escalation and the developments in a war, striving for some hope of victory. If North Korea actually attacked a city such as Seoul with a nuclear weapon, it could result in hundreds of thousands of casualties, as well as serious damage to the South Korean economy.

Pakistan: Can the United States Secure an Insecure State?

Pakistan: Can the United States Secure an Insecure State?

Source: RAND Corporation

Describing Pakistan’s likely future course, this book seeks to inform U.S. efforts to achieve an effective foreign policy strategy toward the country. The book forms an empirical analysis of developments in Pakistan and an assessment of the effectiveness of U.S. policy as of August 2009. Drawing on interviews of elites, polling data, and statistical data on Pakistan’s armed forces, the book presents a political and political-military analysis. Primary data and analyses from Pakistanis and international economic organizations are used in the book’s demographic and economic analyses. The book assesses Pakistan’s own policies, based on similar sources, on government documents, and on the authors’ close reading of the assessments of several outside observers. The book also discusses U.S. policy regarding Pakistan, which was based on interviews with U.S. policymakers and on U.S. policy documents. The policy recommendations are based on an assessment of the findings in all these areas. The book concludes with a number of recommendations for the U.S. government and the U.S. Air Force concerning how the United States could forge a broad yet effective relationship with this complicated state.

Trends in International Arms Transfers, 2009

Trends in International Arms Transfers, 2009

Source: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute

From the Summary:

The SIPRI Arms Transfers Database now contains information on all international transfers of major conventional weapons from 1950 to the end of 2009. It is the only publicly available resource providing consistent data on international arms transfers for this length of time. This Fact Sheet describes the trends that are revealed by the new data.

The volume of international transfers of major conventional weapons for the period 2005–2009 is 22 per cent higher than for the period 2000–2004. Combat aircraft accounted for 27 per cent of the volume of international arms transfers. These weapon systems are potentially destabilizing, and orders and deliveries have led to arms race concerns in regions of tension in Latin America, the Middle East, North Africa, South Asia and South East Asia.

The five biggest arms suppliers for the period 2005–2009 were the USA, Russia, Germany, France and the UK. The five biggest recipients were China, India, South Korea, the UAE and Greece. The volume of arms transferred to the two largest importers—China and India—decreased by 20 per cent and 7 per cent, respectively, in 2005–2009 in comparison with 2000–2004.

New ASP Report Shows Declining Levels of Islamist Terrorism since July 2009

New ASP Report Shows Declining Levels of Islamist Terrorism since July 2009

Source: American Security Project

Today, the American Security Project released the mid-year update to their annual “Are We Winning?” Report, which showed a marked decrease in Islamist terrorism in the last two quarters of 2009 outside of the on-going conflict theaters of Iraq and Afghanistan. Even though Islamist terrorist incidents still remain at historically high levels, the decrease at the end of 2009 was the largest since 2004, when National Counter Terrorism Center (NCTC) started tracking Islamist terrorist incidents. The report, authored by ASP Senior Fellow Bernard Finel and Researcher Germain Difo measures America’s progress in the fight against terrorism according to metrics that are designed to be both reproducible and objective.

According to the report, much of the decline in Islamic terrorist incidents is due to decreasing terror incidents in Pakistan. Though there have been several high profile attacks in Pakistan, Islamist terrorism in that country is down 60% from the first six months of 2009. This decline is likely due to increased military pressure by the Pakistani military on radicals within that country. In addition, the report found that Al Qaeda is increasingly marginal to the broader radical Islamist movement, and remains under significant pressure due to drone strikes and other forms of military pressure. This continues to demonstrate the tactical effectiveness of military counter-terrorism activities, though according to Senior Fellow and report author Bernard Finel, “it is unlikely that military pressure alone will provide a long-term solution to the terrorism challenge. We should be cautiously optimistic about the ability of military efforts in areas such as Pakistan and Afghanistan to dislodge some terrorist groups and keep them on the run. But there is still a significant chance that terror groups may rebound.”

World Bank Announces free access to its online data

World Development Indicators, Global Development Finance, Africa Development Indicators, and Global Economic Monitor are now free, open, and easy to access at data.worldbank.org

Increasing Energy Efficiency: A Key Step in Securing America’s Energy Future

Increasing Energy Efficiency: A Key Step in Securing America’s Energy Future

Source: U.S. Chamber of Commerce

Karen Harbert, president and CEO of the Institute for 21st Century Energy at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, today told lawmakers that while targeted tax incentives can play a role in fostering deployment of clean energy, there are other instruments that may prove to be more impactful and less expensive over time.

In testimony before the House Ways and Means Committee today about Energy Tax Incentives and the Green Job Economy, Harbert noted that in addition to fiscal tools, other weapons in the policy arsenal should be used to tackle our energy challenges.

“As we examine energy policy, it is more important than ever that we look to options that don’t further burden the taxpayer or jeopardize energy security and offer the greatest return on investment to our economy,” Harbert said. “It is important to realize that tax incentives are only one avenue to foster the deployment of clean technologies, and there are other instruments which, in some situations, may prove more impactful and less expensive over time.”

Nuke Review Takes Comprehensive Look at Strategy

Nuke Review Takes Comprehensive Look at Strategy

Source: U.S. Department of Defense

The Nuclear Posture Review, released today, is the first overarching look at U.S. nuclear strategy since the end of the Cold War, a senior defense official briefing reporters on background said yesterday.

The review builds on President Barack Obama’s promise to take concrete steps toward the goal of achieving the safety and security of a world free of nuclear weapons, the official said.
A second element, the official added, was to maintain a nuclear deterrent as long as those weapons remain, and ensuring the safety, security and effectiveness of that deterrent while they remain.

The Nuclear Posture Review provides the basis behind many moves in the nuclear arena in the coming months, the official said. Obama will travel to Prague to sign the new strategic arms reduction treaty with Russia on April 8. The treaty mandates further reductions to the U.S. and Russian arsenals, and officials looked to the Nuclear Posture Review guidance as they negotiated the treaty.

The review also will influence U.S. thinking in the nonproliferation treaty, the nuclear security summit and the nonproliferation review conference.

Ballistic Missile Defense Review

Ballistic Missile Defense Review

Source: U.S. Department of Defense

The Ballistic Missile Defense Review (BMDR) is a review conducted pursuant to guidance from the President and the Secretary of Defense, while also addressing the legislative requirement to assess U.S. ballistic missile defense policy and strategy. The BMDR will evaluate the threats posed by ballistic missiles and develop a missile defense posture to address current and future challenges.

Command and control? Planning for EU military operations

Command and control? Planning for EU military operations
Source: Institute for Security Studies

Summary:This paper assesses the effectiveness of the European Union’s capability for the planning and conduct of military operations. Given the fact that the planning and conduct phases of an operation can never be fully isolated from each other, the paper does include some references to the conduct dimension, i.e. command and control (C2). However, it is with planning issues that this paper is most directly concerned. It argues that the lack of a permanent planning and conduct capability cripples the Union’s planning and C2 performance as well as the development of the European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP) more broadly. This capability, though, need not adopt the form of a fully-fledged Operational Headquarters (OHQ). The paper explains that the nature and evolution of the Union’s planning and C2 capability is largely the result of compromises between France, Britain and Germany (the Union’s ‘Big Three’) and argues that a coincidence in British-German objectives – the ‘awkward alignment’ – is particularly responsible for the continuing absence of a permanent military planning and C2 capability.

In its policy recommendations, the paper attempts to reconcile the need to address the existing deficiencies in the realms of planning (no flexibility and lack of advance planning capacity) and C2 (the unreliability of the Union’s Communications and Information Systems infrastructure and the lack of situational awareness) with prevailing political caveats – principally, the general resistance to the creation of a fully-fledged and permanent military OHQ. It proposes strengthening the Military Assessment on Planning Branch (currently placed within the EU Military Staff) by setting up a planning skeleton (composed of some 50 officials) devoted to improving the Union’s advance planning performance and increasing flexibility in the Union’s planning process. This skeleton would be inserted within the future Crisis Management Planning Directorate (CMPD) structure. Additionally, an ad hoc group of national augmentees (drawn from a wider pool of some 80 to 100 pre-identified augmentees) could join a detachment from the skeleton and plug onto the existing OpsCentre or a national OHQ for operational planning and conduct purposes.

The paper is divided into three chapters. The first chapter explains ESDP’s planning cycle and describes the evolution of the Union’s planning and C2 capability. The second chapter proceeds to assess the planning and C2 performance of three military operations; EUFOR Althea in Bosnia and Herzegovina, EUFOR DRC in the Democratic Republic of Congo and EUFOR Tchad/RCA in Chad and the Central African Republic. The third and last chapter presents the study’s conclusions and offers practical policy recommendations aimed at improving the Union’s planning and conduct capability.