Pakistan: Can the United States Secure an Insecure State?
Source: RAND Corporation
Describing Pakistan’s likely future course, this book seeks to inform U.S. efforts to achieve an effective foreign policy strategy toward the country. The book forms an empirical analysis of developments in Pakistan and an assessment of the effectiveness of U.S. policy as of August 2009. Drawing on interviews of elites, polling data, and statistical data on Pakistan’s armed forces, the book presents a political and political-military analysis. Primary data and analyses from Pakistanis and international economic organizations are used in the book’s demographic and economic analyses. The book assesses Pakistan’s own policies, based on similar sources, on government documents, and on the authors’ close reading of the assessments of several outside observers. The book also discusses U.S. policy regarding Pakistan, which was based on interviews with U.S. policymakers and on U.S. policy documents. The policy recommendations are based on an assessment of the findings in all these areas. The book concludes with a number of recommendations for the U.S. government and the U.S. Air Force concerning how the United States could forge a broad yet effective relationship with this complicated state.
Wednesday, May 19, 2010
Monday, May 3, 2010
Trends in International Arms Transfers, 2009
Trends in International Arms Transfers, 2009
Source: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
From the Summary:
The SIPRI Arms Transfers Database now contains information on all international transfers of major conventional weapons from 1950 to the end of 2009. It is the only publicly available resource providing consistent data on international arms transfers for this length of time. This Fact Sheet describes the trends that are revealed by the new data.
The volume of international transfers of major conventional weapons for the period 2005–2009 is 22 per cent higher than for the period 2000–2004. Combat aircraft accounted for 27 per cent of the volume of international arms transfers. These weapon systems are potentially destabilizing, and orders and deliveries have led to arms race concerns in regions of tension in Latin America, the Middle East, North Africa, South Asia and South East Asia.
The five biggest arms suppliers for the period 2005–2009 were the USA, Russia, Germany, France and the UK. The five biggest recipients were China, India, South Korea, the UAE and Greece. The volume of arms transferred to the two largest importers—China and India—decreased by 20 per cent and 7 per cent, respectively, in 2005–2009 in comparison with 2000–2004.
Source: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
From the Summary:
The SIPRI Arms Transfers Database now contains information on all international transfers of major conventional weapons from 1950 to the end of 2009. It is the only publicly available resource providing consistent data on international arms transfers for this length of time. This Fact Sheet describes the trends that are revealed by the new data.
The volume of international transfers of major conventional weapons for the period 2005–2009 is 22 per cent higher than for the period 2000–2004. Combat aircraft accounted for 27 per cent of the volume of international arms transfers. These weapon systems are potentially destabilizing, and orders and deliveries have led to arms race concerns in regions of tension in Latin America, the Middle East, North Africa, South Asia and South East Asia.
The five biggest arms suppliers for the period 2005–2009 were the USA, Russia, Germany, France and the UK. The five biggest recipients were China, India, South Korea, the UAE and Greece. The volume of arms transferred to the two largest importers—China and India—decreased by 20 per cent and 7 per cent, respectively, in 2005–2009 in comparison with 2000–2004.
New ASP Report Shows Declining Levels of Islamist Terrorism since July 2009
New ASP Report Shows Declining Levels of Islamist Terrorism since July 2009
Source: American Security Project
Today, the American Security Project released the mid-year update to their annual “Are We Winning?” Report, which showed a marked decrease in Islamist terrorism in the last two quarters of 2009 outside of the on-going conflict theaters of Iraq and Afghanistan. Even though Islamist terrorist incidents still remain at historically high levels, the decrease at the end of 2009 was the largest since 2004, when National Counter Terrorism Center (NCTC) started tracking Islamist terrorist incidents. The report, authored by ASP Senior Fellow Bernard Finel and Researcher Germain Difo measures America’s progress in the fight against terrorism according to metrics that are designed to be both reproducible and objective.
According to the report, much of the decline in Islamic terrorist incidents is due to decreasing terror incidents in Pakistan. Though there have been several high profile attacks in Pakistan, Islamist terrorism in that country is down 60% from the first six months of 2009. This decline is likely due to increased military pressure by the Pakistani military on radicals within that country. In addition, the report found that Al Qaeda is increasingly marginal to the broader radical Islamist movement, and remains under significant pressure due to drone strikes and other forms of military pressure. This continues to demonstrate the tactical effectiveness of military counter-terrorism activities, though according to Senior Fellow and report author Bernard Finel, “it is unlikely that military pressure alone will provide a long-term solution to the terrorism challenge. We should be cautiously optimistic about the ability of military efforts in areas such as Pakistan and Afghanistan to dislodge some terrorist groups and keep them on the run. But there is still a significant chance that terror groups may rebound.”
Source: American Security Project
Today, the American Security Project released the mid-year update to their annual “Are We Winning?” Report, which showed a marked decrease in Islamist terrorism in the last two quarters of 2009 outside of the on-going conflict theaters of Iraq and Afghanistan. Even though Islamist terrorist incidents still remain at historically high levels, the decrease at the end of 2009 was the largest since 2004, when National Counter Terrorism Center (NCTC) started tracking Islamist terrorist incidents. The report, authored by ASP Senior Fellow Bernard Finel and Researcher Germain Difo measures America’s progress in the fight against terrorism according to metrics that are designed to be both reproducible and objective.
According to the report, much of the decline in Islamic terrorist incidents is due to decreasing terror incidents in Pakistan. Though there have been several high profile attacks in Pakistan, Islamist terrorism in that country is down 60% from the first six months of 2009. This decline is likely due to increased military pressure by the Pakistani military on radicals within that country. In addition, the report found that Al Qaeda is increasingly marginal to the broader radical Islamist movement, and remains under significant pressure due to drone strikes and other forms of military pressure. This continues to demonstrate the tactical effectiveness of military counter-terrorism activities, though according to Senior Fellow and report author Bernard Finel, “it is unlikely that military pressure alone will provide a long-term solution to the terrorism challenge. We should be cautiously optimistic about the ability of military efforts in areas such as Pakistan and Afghanistan to dislodge some terrorist groups and keep them on the run. But there is still a significant chance that terror groups may rebound.”
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